地方政府专项债券的风险既源于其规模过大,超出了地方财政的承受能力,也源于其对应的资产质量参差不齐。本文估算了未来五年的专项债发行规模,并以此为基准计算出相关的专项债券总体风险指标。同时,报告也对未来五年省际专项债券进行了估算,并对比了区域间的结构性风险。研究发现,目前我国专项债券的总体风险可控,但部分省份的结构风险较为突出。另外,基于网络爬虫和穿透等大数据技术,报告还设计了一套专项债券项目风险管理的综合系统模块,用以监控和管理专项债的“借”、“用”、“管”和“还”全流程各个环节的风险。
<<The risks of local government special bonds are not only from being too large,which exceeds the capacity of local finance,but also from the uneven quality of the assets corresponding to special bonds. This report estimates the issuance scale of special bonds in the next five years,and uses this as a benchmark to calculate the overall risk indicators of relevant special bonds. At the same time,the report also estimates the inter-provincial special bonds in the next five years,and compares the structural risks between regions. The study found that the overall risk of special bonds is controllable,but the structural risk of some provinces is more prominent. In addition,based on big data technologies such as web crawlers and penetration,the report also designs a set of comprehensive system modules for risk management of special bond projects to monitor and manage the risk of each link,which is the entire process of “borrowing,” “using,” “managing” and “return” of special bonds.
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