本文从三个视角分析了数字经济对利率形成机制的影响。其一,当前我国较高的利率水平可视为金融中介效率偏低的一个佐证,在数字经济背景下,金融中介依托金融科技和科技金融两种主要模式实现效率提升、降低交易成本,并最终达成降低利率水平的目标。其二,自然利率作为价格型货币政策调控的实际利率锚,是中央银行制定政策利率的重要依据。数字经济通过资金需求、资金供给及资金匹配过程,对自然利率产生全方位影响。其三,近年的国际基准利率改革将对全球金融市场带来深远影响,但新型基准利率在形成机制上仍然存在一些不足。数字经济能够通过信用关系技术化弥补新型基准利率关于信用风险的缺失,利用机器学习技术辅助新型基准利率构建利率曲线,并通过央行数字货币减缓美元对非主要货币国家的冲击。
<<This paper analyzes the impact of the digital economy on the mechanism of interest rates setting from three perspectives. First,the current high interest rate in China could be regarded as a proof of the low efficiency of financial intermediaries. In the context of the digital economy,financial intermediaries would rely on FinTech and BigTech to improve efficiency,reduce transaction costs,and achieve the goal of lowering interest rates ultimately. Second,as the real interest rate anchor for price-based monetary policy,the natural interest rate is fundamental in policy rates formulation. The digital economy has an all-round impact on the natural rate in money supply-demand equilibrium. Third,the reform of the international benchmark rate in recent years would have a profound influence on global financial market,but there are still deficiencies in new benchmark rate setting mechanism. The digital pricing technology used in credit risk measurement could compensate for the missing part in rate setting,machine learning technology contributes to plotting the interest rate curve,and the prevalence of central bank digital currency could mitigate the effects of US dollar exchange rate shock on peripheral countries.
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