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李培林
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    2020~2021年哥伦比亚经济发展分析与展望

    摘要

    2020年突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情对哥伦比亚经济增长造成了重大冲击。快速蔓延的疫情导致国际市场需求骤降、产业链和供应链受阻、国际大宗商品价格大幅波动、正常经济活动受阻,哥伦比亚经济发展面临外部和内部环境骤然恶化的困局。2020年,哥伦比亚的对外贸易、外资引进快速萎缩,就业市场环境急剧恶化,失业率高企,扩张性财政政策致使赤字扩大、物价急速上涨、通货膨胀严重。尽管哥伦比亚政府采取积极措施应对疫情,但还是没能改变经济快速下滑的局面,2020年是自2008年金融危机以来经济状况最糟糕的一年。受疫情冲击,2020年中哥贸易额快速萎缩。2021年,新冠疫苗接种快速推进,国际市场需求逐渐恢复,原油、煤炭等国际大宗商品价格大涨,为哥伦比亚经济增长带来利好,但受到地缘政治和全球经济低迷等因素制约,哥伦比亚经济增长仍面临诸多挑战和不确定性。

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    Abstract

    The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 had a major impact on Colombia’s economic growth. The rapid spread of COVID-19 has led to a sharp drop in international market demand,disruption of industrial and supply chains,drop in international commodity prices,and disruption of normal economic activities. Colombia’s economic development is facing a dilemma of a sudden deterioration of the external and internal environment. Due to the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic,Colombia’s foreign trade and foreign investment shrank rapidly in 2020,the employment market environment deteriorated sharply,the unemployment rate was high,and the expansionary fiscal policy led to the expansion of the deficit,rising prices and inflation. Despite the aggressive measures taken by the Colombian government to combat the pandemic,Colombia’s economic growth in 2020 failed to stop the rapid decline,and 2020 has been the worst year since the 2008 financial crisis. In 2020,the foreign trade between China and Colombia shrank rapidly under the impact of COVID-19. In 2021,the rapid progress of the vaccination against COVID-19,the gradual recovery of international market demand,and the surge in the prices of crude oil,coal and other international commodities will bring benefits to Colombia’s economic growth. However,due to factors such as geopolitics and the global economic downturn,Colombia’s economic growth still face many challenges and uncertainties.

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    作者简介
    严复雷:严复雷,博士,西南科技大学经济管理学院副教授,主要研究方向为国际贸易学、金融学等。
    陈贝贝:陈贝贝,西南科技大学经济管理学院应用经济学硕士研究生,主要研究方向为国际贸易学、金融学。
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