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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    1990~2022年中国30个省(区、市)发展前景评价——低碳转型与...

    摘要

    本报告从指数、分级和排名等方面对中国30个省(区、市)1990~2022年的经济增长、增长潜力、政府效率、人民生活和环境质量五个一级指标进行分析,并对其“十四五”发展前景进行评估。报告认为尽管中国经济正面临着结构性减速和2020年以来近三年的严重疫情的影响,但中国30个省(区、市)的发展前景和经济发展质量仍然得到了一定的稳固、恢复和提升。综合来看,发展前景和一级指标的改善情况仍基本延续以往的走势。发展前景指数、经济增长指数、人民生活指数是西部地区改善情况优于东部、中部地区,环境质量指数是中部地区改善情况优于东部、西部地区,增长潜力指数和政府效率指数是东部地区改善情况优于中、西部地区。从疫情以来的区域发展情况对比来看,除环境质量外,其他一级指标均是西部地区改善情况均优于东部、中部地区。发达地区经济发展质量受到了比发展中地区更为严重的影响,从而区域差距有一定程度的缩小,但这种缩小却不是我们希望看到的,不是我们所希望实现的共同富裕。同时,随着城市化的深入发展,公共服务、社会保障、生活质量和生态环境逐渐上升到较为重要的地位。

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    Abstract

    This report analyzes the indicators of 30 provinces in China from 1990 to 2022 in terms of index,classification and ranking. The indicators here are composed of five first-class indicators:economic growth,growth potential,government efficiency,people’s life and environmental quality. The report also assesses its development prospects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. According to the report,China’s economy is facing a structural slowdown;however,under the severe impact of the epidemic that has lasted for nearly three years,the development prospects and the quality of economic development of China’s provinces,autonomous regions and cities have still been stabilized,restored and improved to a certain extent. In terms of development prospects,economic growth and people’s lives,the improvement in the western region is better than that in the eastern region and the central region. And the improvement in environmental quality in the central region is better than that in the eastern and Western Regions And the improvement in economic growth,growth potential,government efficiency and environmental quality in the eastern region is better than that in the central and Western Regions. From the comparison of regional development stages during the epidemic period,in terms of regional development improvement index,except for environmental quality,the improvement in the western region is better than that in the eastern and central regions. The quality of economic development in developed regions has been more seriously affected than that in developing regions,resulting in a certain reduction in regional differences. However,this is not what common prosperity hopes to achieve,but because developed regions are facing a more serious setback than the central and western regions. At the same time,with the deepening development of urbanization,the requirements of public services,social security,quality of life and ecological environment have gradually risen to a more important position.

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    作者简介
    张自然:张自然,博士,中国社会科学院经济研究所经济增长理论研究室主任、研究员、博士生导师,主要研究方向为城市化、技术进步与经济增长。
    张平:张平,博士,中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员、博士生导师,主要研究方向为经济增长。
    刘霞辉:刘霞辉,中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员、博士生导师,主要研究方向经济增长。
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