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谢伏瞻
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    虚拟数字人的未来展望

    摘要

    2021年是元宇宙发展元年,也是虚拟数字人爆发的一年。虚拟数字人作为一种融合多种先进技术并具备高度拟人化的媒介角色,将广泛应用在元宇宙的各个场景中。本报告按照技术、应用以及设计风格维度将虚拟数字人进行分类,介绍虚拟数字人诞生至今发展经历的四个阶段,对虚拟数字人当前的行业现状进行梳理。在技术体系方面,将虚拟数字人技术分为人物生成、人物表达、合成显示、识别感知、分析决策5个技术模块;在产业生态方面,将虚拟数字人产业分为基础层、核心层、应用层、资本方和监管方5个部分,并按照产业链上下游对核心层进行重点介绍。报告还从虚拟偶像、虚拟员工、虚拟主播、虚拟专家、数字化身5个方面对虚拟数字人的典型应用进行介绍,最后从关键技术、使用门槛、商业价值、行业生态4个视角对虚拟数字人发展趋势做出展望。

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    Abstract

    The year 2021 is the first year of the development of the meta-verse.,and also the explosion of virtual digital human.Virtual digital human,as a fusion of multiple advanced technologies,a media role with highly anthropomorphic,will be widely used in various scenarios in the meta-verse.

    This paper classifies the virtual digital human according to the dimensions of technology,application and design style,and introduces the four stages of the development experience since from 1982.

    This paper sorts out the current situation of the virtual digital human industry,and analyzes that the virtual digital human industry has good development prospects,both from the market size and the investment and financing.In terms of technical system,the virtual digital human technology is divided into five technical modules:character generation,character expression,synthetic display,recognition and perception,analysis and decision,and it is elaborated one.In terms of industrial ecology,the virtual digital human industry is divided into five parts:basic layer,core layer,application layer,capital side and regulatory party,and the core layer can be divided into three roles according to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.

    This paper introduces the typical applications of virtual digital human from the five aspects of virtual idol,virtual staff,virtual anchor,virtual expert,and avatar,and selects Luo Tianyi,AIYA and other characteristic cases for auxiliary explanation.Finally,the development trend of virtual digital human is expected from the four perspectives of key technology,use threshold,commercial value and industry ecology.

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