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    气候变化背景下黄河流域城市群韧性发展研究

    摘要

    在气候变化和人类活动的双重影响下,黄河流域面临的气候变化风险日趋复杂和严峻,黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展必须注重气候变化风险的应对。本报告基于联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)“危险性—暴露度—脆弱性”的气候风险框架和“工程韧性—生态韧性—演化韧性”的韧性理论框架,构建黄河流域城市群气候风险及韧性评估模型,将样本城市划分为韧性城市、低风险城市、脆弱型城市和高风险城市。研究结果表明,2020年黄河流域超过80%的城市属于脆弱型和高风险城市,韧性城市占比仅为2。5%;气候韧性水平具有明显的地域分布特征,上游和中游地区以脆弱型城市为主,下游地区的高风险城市占比较高,且四种城市类型在时间和空间维度均发生明显的跃迁和转变。报告建议应协同推进工程韧性—经济韧性—社会韧性—生态韧性,并建立基于演化韧性的流域一体化风险管理和应对机制,以期提升黄河流域城市群气候韧性和可持续发展能力。

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    Abstract

    Under the dual influence of climate change and human activities,the risk of climate change in the Yellow River Basin has become increasingly complex and severe. The ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin must pay attention to the response to the risk of climate change. Based on IPCC’s climate risk framework of “disaster-exposure-vulnerability” and the resilience theoretical framework of “engineering resilience-ecological resilience-evolutionary resilience”,this paper constructs a climate resilience assessment model for urban agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin,and divides sample cities into resilient cities,low-risk cities,vulnerable cities,and high-risk cities. The results show that 80% of the cities in the Yellow River Basin belong to vulnerable and high-risk cities,and the proportion of resilient cities is only 2.5%;the climate resilience level has obvious geographical distribution characteristics,and the upper and middle reaches are dominated by vulnerable cities,and the lower reaches are dominated by vulnerable cities. The proportion of high-risk cities in the region is the highest,and the four city types have undergone obvious transitions and transformations in both time and space dimensions. The article suggests that engineering resilience-economic resilience-social resilience-ecological resilience should be promoted collaboratively,and an integrated river basin risk response mechanism based on evolutionary resilience should be established,in order to improve the climate resilience and sustainable development capabilities of urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin.

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    作者简介
    武占云:武占云,应用经济学博士后,中国社会科学院生态文明研究所国土空间与生态安全研究室副主任,主要研究方向为城市与区域经济、国土空间规划与治理。
    孙劭:孙劭,中国气候科学研究院副研究员,主要研究方向为气候影响与风险评估。
    张双悦:张双悦,天津商业大学经济学院讲师,主要研究方向为区域经济学。
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