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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    气候宜居性:概念、政策内涵及主要城市群评价

    摘要

    气候宜居性是气候资源的重要属性,也是建设宜居城市的重要体现。鉴于城市群已成为我国新型城镇化的重要载体,评价各城市群气候宜居性并分析其对人口定居意愿的影响机制具有重要意义。本报告通过气候舒适性评价模型测算了我国各地级及以上城市(含直辖市4个和省直辖县级行政单位3个)的气候宜居性,并基于PSM模型分析了气候宜居性对人口定居意愿的影响。研究表明,气候宜居性对人口迁移具有显著影响,人口在进行定居选择时对气候舒适性有着较高的要求;我国主要城市群气候宜居性在全国大体处于中等水平,以春秋舒适型为主,冬季和夏季舒适型城市很少,纬度仍是影响城市气候宜居性的最主要因素。建设气候宜居型城市,应当立足于打造优质空间品质,积极应对气候变暖,采取基于自然的解决方案,严格控制城镇开发边界,保护各类生态用地,积极建设森林城市群,有效联通各城市生态廊道,营造良好的城市群气候宜居性。

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    Abstract

    Climate livability is an important attribute of climate resources and an important embodiment of building a livable city. In view of the fact that urban agglomerations have become an important carrier for China’s New Urbanization strategy,it is of great significance to evaluate the climatic livability of each urban agglomeration and analyze its impact on the population’s willingness to settle. The climatic livability of cities above the local level in China (4 municipalities and 3 counties directed governed by the provincial government) was calculated,and the impact of climatic livability on the population’s willingness to settle was analyzed based on the PSM model. Research shows that climate livability has a significant impact on population migration,and population has higher requirements for climate comfortableness when making settlement choices. The climatic livability of major urban agglomerations in China is roughly at a moderate level in the country,mainly livable in spring and autumn,and few in winter and summer. The latitude is still the most important factor affecting its climatic livability. The construction of a climate-friendly city should be based on creating high-quality space quality,actively respond to climate warming,adopt nature-based solutions,strictly control the boundaries of urban development,and protect various ecological land. It’s also important to connect the urban ecological corridors and create good climate livability for the urban agglomerations.

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    作者简介
    丛晓男:丛晓男,博士,中国社会科学院生态文明研究所资源与环境经济研究室副主任、副研究员,主要研究方向为区域可持续发展。
    熊文:熊文,博士,北京工商大学文科实践中心执行主任、经济学院副教授,主要研究方向为宏观经济政策模拟。
    万赛楠:万赛楠,北京工商大学经济学院本科生。
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