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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2015~2021年中国数字经济上市公司评价和投资策略分析

    摘要

    发达经济体现有的数字化转型及其推动的第二次经济全球化消化了工业化的高雇佣成本,实现了低成本全球创新。然而,也由此带来了劳动力市场极化效应削弱人力资本积累激励、中心化平台企业追逐垄断租金抑制网络效应和协同创新、离岸生产的兴起损害本土创新生态完整性等一系列问题,并最终削弱发达经济体新产业和新市场的创造能力。正是由于未能实现知识生产率提高,发达经济体现有的数字化转型及其推动的第二次经济全球化并未能成功应对Jones挑战,即在人口红利消失条件下重构增长动力,以致新产业创造跟不上产业转移速度。面对这样不可持续的数字化转型和全球化,发达经济体开始进行倡导元宇宙建设、推动互联网下半场Web3。0革命以及重拾增长导向的贸易战略等一系列内外政策调整,以形成意在提高知识生产率的数字化转型新战略。本报告综合运用数字经济产业数据、数字核心产业上市公司年报披露数据以及由爬虫技术获得的上市公司高频和细颗粒度数字化转型数据发现,尽管中国数字化转型面临空间受限挑战,但经过必要的政策调整,数字经济发展仍有潜力可挖,并可为数字经济投资创造良好条件。

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    Abstract

    The existing digital transformation of advanced economies and its promotion of the second economic globalization digests the high employment costs of industrialization and realizes low-cost global innovation. However,this has also brought about a series of problems such as the polarization effect of the labor market weakening the incentive of human capital accumulation,the pursuit of monopoly rent by centralized platform companies to suppress network effects and collaborative innovation,and the rise of offshore production that damages the integrity of the local innovation ecosystem. Ultimately,the ability to create new industries and new markets in advanced economies is weakened. It is precisely because of the failure to realize the improvement of knowledge productivity that the existing digital transformation of advanced economies and their promotion of the second economic globalization failed to successfully meet the Jones challenge,that is,to reconstruct the growth momentum under the condition of the disappearance of the demographic dividend,so that the creation of new industries. In the face of such unsustainable digital transformation and globalization,developed economies have begun to carry out a series of domestic and foreign policy adjustments such as advocating the construction of the metaverse,promoting the web 3.0 revolution in the second half of the Internet,and regaining a growth-oriented trade strategy for the digital transformation of productivity. This report comprehensively uses the digital economy industry data,the annual report disclosure data of listed companies in the digital core industry,and the high-frequency and fine-grained digital transformation data of listed companies obtained by crawler technology. With policy adjustments,the development of the digital economy still has potential to be tapped,and good conditions can be created for investment in the digital economy.

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    作者简介
    张磊:张磊,中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员。
    张鹏:张鹏,中国社会科学院经济研究所副研究员。
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