当前,全球经济增长的势头已被新冠肺炎疫情和国际地缘政治冲突大大削弱,2022年俄乌冲突发生后,能源、农产品价格激增,全球经济周期不同步特征加强。综合2022年上半年我国经济增速以及下半年内外需可能的变化态势,我们预计,如果下半年疫情防控形势总体稳定,下半年中国GDP增速可能超过5%,全年GDP增速可能在4%左右。从具有代表性的中国A股上市公司微观主体经营业绩来看,2021年第一季度至2022年第一季度,全部A股上市公司的营业总收入和归母净利润累计同比与GDP累计同比走势较为一致。在2020年同期基数逐季提高的情况下,2021年第一季度至第四季度,我国上市公司经营业绩和GDP增速总体呈现先快速冲高而后逐步回落的态势;2022年第一季度在前期基础上又有所下降。分属于产业链上、中、下游的企业利润分配存在明显差异,表现为上游好于中游、中游好于下游,这种利润分配格局在相关股票价格指数中也有明显反映。同时,分属于不同行业的上市公司利润增长也呈现明显分化。在坚持市场化、法治化的基础上,近年来,中国资本市场继续全面深化改革开放,在很多领域取得积极成效。下一步,应持续推进股票发行注册制改革;持续加强资本市场法治供给;持续稳步推进资本市场高水平双向开放。
<<At present,the momentum of global economic growth has been greatly weakened by the new crown pneumonia epidemic and international geopolitical conflicts. After the world economy rebounds in 2021,the growth rate will tend to decline this year and next. After the Ukraine crisis in 2022,the prices of energy and agricultural products have surged,and geopolitical conflicts have once again hit the fragile global economy. The slowdown of globalization and the shift of globalization to regional alliances continue to strengthen,which has begun to significantly affect the global economy,causing economic differentiation among countries.,the asynchrony of the global economic cycle has strengthened. Taking into account my country’s economic growth rate in the first half of the year and the possible changes in domestic and foreign demand in the second half of the year,we expect that if the epidemic prevention and control situation is generally stable in the second half of the year,China’s GDP growth rate may exceed 5% in the second half of 2022,and the annual GDP growth rate may be 20%. 4% or so. Judging from the operating performance of representative Chinese A-share listed companies,from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022,the cumulative year-on-year trend of total operating income and net profit attributable to the parent company of all A-share listed companies is relatively consistent with the cumulative year-on-year trend of GDP. With the base increasing quarter by quarter in the same period in 2020,from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2021,the operating performance and GDP growth rate of my country’s listed companies generally showed a trend of rising rapidly and then gradually falling;has declined. There are obvious differences in the profit distribution of enterprises belonging to the upper,middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. The upstream is better than the middle,and the middle is better than the downstream. This profit distribution pattern is also clearly reflected in the relevant stock price indices. At the same time,the profit growth of listed companies belonging to different industries also showed obvious differentiation. On the basis of adhering to marketization and legalization,in recent years,China’s capital market has continued to comprehensively deepen reform and opening up,and achieved positive results in many fields. In the next step,we should continue to promote the reform of the stock issuance registration system;continue to strengthen the supply of the rule of law in the capital market;continue to steadily advance the high-level two-way opening of the capital market.
<<Keywords: | Economic GrowthCapital MarketProfit DifferentiationThe Economic Cycle Is Not SynchronizedThe Value-creating Ability of Listed Companies |