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    广义财政支出乘数效应分析

    摘要

    财政支出政策是重要的宏观调控政策工具,财政支出政策不仅具有经济属性,还具有社会属性,在对冲经济风险和社会风险中发挥着积极作用。本报告基于广义政策乘数视角,全面深入分析财政支出政策在经济发展、稳定就业、提振市场信心中所发挥的作用,从支出总量和支出结构两个层面展开分析,加深对中国财政支出政策乘数效应的理解。为更好地优化支出结构并释放财政政策效能提出了部分优化政策的对策建议:一是完善宏观政策周期管理,释放宏观政策效能;二是提高财政支出政策的前瞻性,强化预期引导;三是完善财政支出政策预算绩效管理,充分考虑风险对冲因素;四是优化财政支出结构,促进经济与社会协同发展。

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    Abstract

    Fiscal expenditure policy is an important macro-control policy tool. Fiscal expenditure policy has not only economic attributes,but also social attributes. It plays an active role in hedging economic and social risks. Based on the perspective of broad policy multiplier,this paper comprehensively and deeply analyzes the role of fiscal expenditure policy in economic development,stabilizing employment and boosting market confidence. The analysis is carried out from the two levels of total expenditure and expenditure structure,deepening our understanding of the multiplier effect of China’s fiscal expenditure policy. In order to better optimize the expenditure structure and release the efficiency of fiscal policy,this paper finally puts forward some suggestions for policy optimization. First,improve the cycle management of macro policy to release the efficiency of macro policy;Second,improve the foresight of fiscal expenditure policy and strengthen the expected guidance;Third,improve the performance management of government expenditure policy budget,and fully consider the risk hedging factors;Fourth,we will optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure and promote coordinated economic and social development.

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    作者简介
    王志刚:王志刚,中国财政科学研究院宏观经济研究中心副主任,研究员,财政学博士生导师,主要研究方向为宏观经济、应用计量经济学、政策评估、数字财政。
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