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    风险导向:2022年及以后中国财政政策展望

    摘要

    多重风险叠加下,财政政策需以公共风险管理为导向。传统的“危机—政策”模式,是问题导向下的被动的宏观调控模式;而“风险—政策”模式,是风险导向下的主动的宏观治理模式。2022年是“十四五”时期承上启下的关键一年。面对三重压力叠加多重风险,积极的财政政策的主要特点为提升政策效能、更加注重精准、实现可持续。年初的财政政策安排和年度中的政策调整,实质上更多的是基于对冲多重风险做出的前瞻性安排,财政政策靠前发力,下好先手棋。财政政策适配经济和社会层面多重风险对冲,构建确定性。财政政策和改革适配公共风险与财政风险权衡,实现财政可持续。展望以后年度的财政政策,在内外部不确定性增多的背景下,财政政策需注重前瞻性、系统性、集成性、协同性,避免政策的“碎片化”“短期化”“微观化”,注重经济效应与社会效应的有机统一,中长期财政政策聚焦人的现代化发力,注重相机抉择政策与自动稳定器政策相结合,注重财政政策与其他宏观政策之间的协同。

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    Abstract

    Under the superposition of multiple risks,fiscal policy should be guided by public risk management. The traditional “crisis policy” model is a passive macro-control model guided by problems;The “risk policy” model is an active macro governance model under the risk orientation. 2022 is a key year for the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. In the face of triple pressures and multiple risks,the main characteristics of the proactive fiscal policy are to improve policy efficiency,pay more attention to accuracy and achieve sustainability. Fiscal policy arrangements and mid year policy adjustments are in essence more forward-looking arrangements based on hedging multiple risks. Fiscal policy is driven forward and plays a good first hand. Fiscal policy adapts to multiple risk hedging at the economic and social levels to build certainty. Fiscal policy and reform should adapt to the balance between public risk and fiscal risk,so as to achieve fiscal sustainability. Looking forward to the fiscal policy in the coming years,under the background of increasing internal and external uncertainties,fiscal policy should pay attention to foresight,systematization,integration and coordination,avoid policy fragmentation,short-term and micromation,pay attention to the organic unity of economic and social effects,focus on people’s modernization efforts in the medium and long-term fiscal policy,and pay attention to the combination of discretionary policy and automatic stabilizer policy,Pay attention to the synergy between fiscal policy and other macro policies.

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    作者简介
    石英华:石英华,中国财政科学研究院宏观经济研究中心主任,研究员,博士生导师,中国财政学会理事,全国预算与会计研究会常务理事,主要研究方向为宏观经济、财政政策、财政体制、公共支出管理。
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