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    风险权衡:2021年中国的财政政策

    摘要

    2021年,世界经济在不稳定和不平衡中复苏,我国经济恢复超预期但下行压力也不小。本报告对我国2008年以来的财政政策进行了回顾,认为其逻辑已发生了从“需求管理”到“风险权衡”的转变。2020年的财政政策更加积极有为,对冲了新冠肺炎疫情导致的公共风险,但也导致了财政风险的攀升。2021年超预期的经济恢复使得积极财政政策向“可持续性”倾斜,着力在防范化解财政风险中提质增效,政策内容主要是:以稳定支出力度统筹公共风险与财政风险,以持续性减税降费与融资支持并举降低市场主体经营风险,以支持国家重大发展战略聚焦重大公共风险,以尽力而为、量力而行协调社会风险与财政风险,以规范地方政府债务管理防范化解财政风险。2021年积极财政政策的实施,推动了经济稳定恢复和财政风险释放,有力保障了基本民生,促进了市场主体活力修复,但疫情持续多点散发之下,经济社会发展中的风险挑战依然很大,加之地缘政治事件及主要经济体宽松政策退出等因素影响,宏观环境的不确定性再度强化,对财政政策风险权衡的精准性提出了更大考验。

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    Abstract

    The recovery of the world economy in 2021 was uneven and unstable. The recovery of China’s economy exceeded expectations but the downward pressure gradually intensified. This report reviews China’s fiscal policy since 2008 and argues that its logic has shifted from Demand Management to Risk Trade-off. The fiscal policy in 2020 has hedged the public risks caused by the COVID-19 epidemic with a more proactive tone,which has also led to the rise of fiscal risks. The more-than-expected economic recovery in 2021 has tilted the proactive fiscal policy toward sustainability,focusing on improving quality and efficiency in preventing and defusing fiscal risks. The main contents of its policies are as follows. First,coordinating public risks and fiscal risks by stabilizing spending efforts. Second,reducing the operating risks of market players through continuous tax and fee reductions and financing support. Third,focusing on major public risks by supporting major national development strategies. Fourth,social and financial risks should be coordinated through spending on people’s livelihood security that is best-effort and within our capabilities. Finally,to prevent and resolve financial risks by regulating local government debt management. The implementation of the proactive fiscal policy in 2021 has promoted the stable recovery of the economy and the release of fiscal risks,effectively safeguarded the basic livelihood of the people,and promoted the restoration of the vitality of market players. However,under the continuous spread of the COVID-19,the risks and challenges in economic and social development are still great. Further affected by factors such as geopolitical events and the withdrawal of the easing policies of major economies,the uncertainty of the macro environment has intensified again. This poses a greater test for the precision of fiscal policy risk trade-offs.

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    作者简介
    武靖州:武靖州,经济学博士,中国财政科学研究院研究员,主要从事宏观经济与财政政策研究。
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