本调查使用问卷法和网络数据分析法探究了北京市居民对三孩政策的态度及生育意愿。问卷调查结果表明,61。44%的居民称自己生三孩的可能性非常小,21。47%的居民称自己生三孩的可能性比较小,仅有3。20%的居民称自己生三孩的可能性较大,1。00%的居民称自己生三孩的可能性非常大;如果政府满足居民的需求的话,表示生三孩可能性非常大的居民增加到8。20%,可能性较大的居民增加到27。00%,总体人数占比增加了31个百分点。此外,研究发现,相较男性,女性的生育意愿更低,且硕士及以上学历人群的生育意愿最低。网络数据分析结果表明,适龄生育人群对经济的要求最高,其次为个人心理成本降低需求、法律与制度保障需求、观念转变需求、个体生命保障及身体健康需求、个体职业发展与养育平衡需求和妇幼保障设施建设需求。因此,相关部门应积极采取措施满足适龄人群的关键需求,以促进生育意愿的提升。
<<To further optimize the childbirth policy,the policy for a couple to have three children and supporting measures were formally proposed on May 31,2021. This study adopted two methods:questionnaire collection and big data collection. The results showed that 61.44% of residents said that they were very unlikely to have three children,21.47% of residents said that they were less likely to have three children. Only 3.20% of residents said that the probability of having three babies is relatively high and 1.00% of residents is very high. However,if the government meets the residents’ childbirth needs,the number of residents who are very likely to have three births will increase to 8.20%,and the number of residents who are more likely to have a third child will increase to 27.00%. The overall proportion increased by about 31%. In addition,the study found that compared with men,women have lower willingness to give birth,and people with a master’s degree and above have the lowest willingness to give birth. Morever,the economic needs of the right-age childbearing population were the highest,followed by individual psychological cost reduction needs,legal and system protection needs,concept change needs,individual life security and physical health needs,individual career development and parenting balance needs,women and children guarantee facility construction needs. Therefore,the relevant departments should actively take measures to meet the key needs of the right-age population to promote the increase of the willingness to bear children.
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