Driven by the rapid economic development，the total carbon emissions in Fujian Province maintained an upward trend in 2019，with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%. The four fields of power and heating supply，manufacturing，residential life and transportation are still the largest carbon emissions in the province，which account for 97.2% of the overall emissions. Considering the uncertainty of future energy transformation，the EKC-STIRPAT model is used to construct multi-scenario prediction. The conclusions show that：under the scenarios of baseline，accelerating transformation and deep optimization，Fujian Province will reach carbon peak in 2030，2028 and 2026 respectively，with peak emissions of 359 million tons，337 million tons，and 319 million tons，respectively. In different scenarios，the time difference of reaching carbon peak between each industry and the whole society maintains the same. In order to reach carbon peak as soon as possible，Fujian Province should establish and improve the carbon emission reduction policy system，accelerate the green transformation of the energy structure，actively promote low-carbon emission reduction in the industrial field，and comprehensively promote the innovation and development of low-carbon technologies.