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    广东数字贸易发展状况及其支撑基础和展望

    摘要

    2014年以来,广东数字贸易总体规模在波动中呈现增长态势,至2019年增长了66。77%,其中跨境电商发展最为迅速,增长了22。84倍,其次为数字服务贸易,增长了55。81%,数字产品贸易则下降了近1/4。广东数字贸易由数字服务贸易主导,跨境电商占比上升,而数字产品贸易占比下降。从数字产业、数字创新、数字用户、数字平台等维度的评估表明,广东具有支撑数字贸易进一步发展的良好基础。总体而言,广东数字贸易发展全国领先。预期未来一段时间,广东将出台政策措施助推数字贸易领先于整体服务和货物贸易发展,数字贸易的拉动作用将越发明显。数字服务贸易、跨境电商和数字产品贸易的“三驾马车”结构将保持稳定,数字服务贸易仍将占主导地位,但跨境电商预计仍将保持快速增长态势,其地位将更加凸显。数字贸易出口将在较长时期内面临国外数字壁垒和规则的影响,而粤港澳大湾区和“一带一路”数字贸易合作将成为发展重点。

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    Abstract

    Since 2014,the overall scale of digital trade in Guangdong has shown a growth trend,with an increase of 66.77% by 2019. Among which,cross-border e-commerce has developed the most rapidly,with an increase of 22.84 times,followed by digital service trade,with an increase of 55.81%,while the scale of digital product trade has fell by nearly a quarter. Guangdong’s digital trade is dominated by digital service trade,with a rise in the proportion of cross-border e-commerce,and a decline in the proportion of digital product trade. Evaluations from the dimensions of digital industry,digital innovation,digital users,and digital platforms show that Guangdong has a good foundation to support the further development of digital trade. Overall,Guangdong’s digital trade development leads the other regions in China. It is expected that in the future,Guangdong will introduce policies and measures to promote digital trade to lead the development on service and goods trade,and the driving effect of digital trade will become more and more obvious. The structure of digital service trade,cross-border e-commerce and digital product trade will remain stable,and digital service trade will still dominate,but cross-border e-commerce is expected to maintain rapid growth and its status will become more prominent. Digital trade exports will face the impact of foreign digital barriers and rules for a long time,while the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the “Belt and Road” digital trade cooperation will become the focus of digital trade development.

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    作者简介
    陈龙江:陈龙江,广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院教授,广东数字经济与贸易研究院研究员,研究方向为国际贸易、农业经济。
    伦莹莹:伦莹莹,广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院硕士研究生。
    王思勤:王思勤,广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院本科生。
    徐楠:徐楠,广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院本科生。
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