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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    广东进口贸易发展趋势分析

    摘要

    新时代下广东加快打造新发展格局的战略支点,其对外贸易结构正经历以出口为主转向优化进口贸易的过程,以破解各国疫情周期错位下国内外各种生产要素流动衔接不畅的现实困境。基于广东贸易发展情况分析,发现广东进口贸易呈现进口产品结构持续优化、进口贸易方式逐步改善、民营企业主体活力增强、以进口深化对外经贸合作四个新特征。同时,广东仍面临进口贸易外部风险冲击增大、区域发展不平衡持续、扩大内需难以见效以及进口服务前瞻性配套不足四个方面问题与挑战,仍需在新一轮高水平对外开放过程中,紧抓区域贸易规则重构、国家扩大市场开放政策红利外溢以及数字经济加速发展的机遇,促进进口贸易发展提质增效。整体来看,未来广东进口贸易仍将保持较快增长,同时服务贸易进口规模扩大、亚洲贸易主场地位强化、消费长期向好基本面不变。

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    Abstract

    In the new era,Guangdong is speeding up to build a strategic pivot for the new development pattern. Its foreign trade structure has been undergoing an important shift from export-oriented to better and stronger import trade,which is in order to solve the dilemma of the poor flow of domestic and foreign production factors due to the dislocation of epidemic cycles in various countries. Based on the Guangdong’s trade development in the past few years,we find that Guangdong’s import trade has been featured by continuous optimization of the structure of imported products,gradual improvement of import trade methods,increased vitality of private enterprises,and deepening foreign economic and trade cooperation with imports. However,Guangdong still encounters four challenges in terms of increasing external risks impact of import trade,sustained regional development imbalance,difficulty in expanding domestic demand,and insufficient forward-looking supporting facilities for import services. Meanwhile,Guangdong may seize the opportunities of restructuring regional trade rules,spillover of dividends from the state’s policy of expanding market opening up,and accelerating the development of the digital economy in the process of a new round of high-level opening up,so as to promote the development of import trade and improve quality and efficiency. Overall,Guangdong’s import trade is expected to maintain rapid growth,while its scale of service trade imports will expand,the home position of Asian trade will be strengthened,and the long-term fundamentals of consumption will remain unchanged.

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    作者简介
    韩永辉:韩永辉,博士研究生导师,珠江学者,广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院教授,研究方向为世界经济。
    谭舒婷:谭舒婷,广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院博士研究生。
    肖玉瑶:肖玉瑶,广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院硕士研究生。
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