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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    全球产业链重构对广东外经贸发展的影响

    摘要

    中美贸易摩擦和新冠肺炎疫情导致全球产业链重构进程加速,对广东外经贸产生了显著影响:一是广东电器及电子产品参与全球产业链程度最深,而且参与度不断提高,其进出口规模最大且占比持续上升;二是广东所需的重要机电产品零部件通过国内生产的比例上升,对外依赖度逐步下降,但高端电子技术产品仍然需要大量进口;三是85章产品(电机、电气设备及其零件)是广东进出口中占比最大也是加工贸易特征最明显的产品,近几年广东自中国台湾进口的85章中间品占比保持在30%左右,远高于日本和韩国,过于集中于一个地区;四是广东参与全球产业链重构的特点是与亚洲其他国家(地区)的产业联系日益紧密,与美国的产业联系不断减弱,与欧洲的产业联系基本维持;五是广东大幅增加对东南亚国家的直接投资,以此方式主动参与全球产业链重构;六是受中美贸易摩擦影响,美资企业在广东的投资明显减少,而台资企业并未减少,总体上没有撤离广东重构全球产业链的行动;七是2020年与广东产业链紧密联系的国家(地区)减少了对广东的外商直接投资。新冠肺炎疫情似乎对全球产业链重构产生了明显影响,进而不利于广东吸引外资。最后,根据这些情况提出了适合广东具体条件的政策建议。

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    Abstract

    Sino-US trade frictions and the COVID-19 pandemic have accelerated the process of global industrial chain reconstruction. This report analyzes whether the global industrial chain reconstruction has a significant impact on Guangdong’s foreign trade and economy,and obtains the following findings. (1)Guangdong’s participation in the global industrial chain is most profound in electrical and electronic products,and its import and export scale is the largest and its proportion continues to rise,indicating that Guangdong’s participation in the global industrial chain of such products continues to improve. (2)Guangdong increasingly relies on domestic production for important electromechanical parts and components,and its dependence on the global industrial chain is gradually decreasing. However,high-end electronic technology products still need to be imported in large quantities,which is the weakest link in the industrial chain and needs to be filled. (3)Guangdong’s participation in the restructuring of the global industrial chain is characterized by increasingly close industrial links with other Asian countries (regions),especially with East and Southeast Asia. The industrial links with the United States are constantly weakening,and the industrial links with Europe are basically maintained. (4)Chapter 85 products account for the largest proportion of Guangdong’s import and export,as well as with the most obvious characteristics of processing trade. In recent years,the proportion of Chapter 85 intermediate products imported by Guangdong from Taiwan,China remains at about 30%,much higher than that of Japan and South Korea,which is too concentrated in one region. (5)Under the Sino-US trade friction,the investment of US-funded enterprises in Guangdong has decreased significantly,while that of Taiwan-funded enterprises has not decreased. In general,Taiwan-funded enterprises have not carried out the global industrial chain reconstruction of moving out of Guangdong. (6)Guangdong actively participates in the reconstruction of the global industrial chain by significantly increasing its direct investment in Southeast Asian countries;(7)In 2020,countries (regions) closely connected with Guangdong’s participation in the global industrial chain will reduce foreign direct investment in Guangdong. The COVID-19 seems to have a significant impact on the reconstruction of the global industrial chain,which is not conducive to Guangdong’s absorption of foreign investment. Finally,this report gives some policy suggestions suitable for Guangdong province.

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    作者简介
    李未无:李未无,博士,广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院教授,研究方向为国际经济。
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