Since 2021，under the influence of accelerated vaccination，relaxation of epidemic prevention measures，stable economic recovery，poor supply chain，slower-than-expected OPEC+ production increase，US expansionary fiscal and monetary policy，and Russia-Ukraine conflict，international crude oil prices have risen sharply with high volatility. Looking forward to the next one to two years，the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures，and the relatively stable economic recovery will drive oil consumption demand increase. High oil prices will generally attract funds to the oil exploration and development industry. However，the carbon peak and neutrality will lower the willingness to invest in oil industry. The combination of high oil prices and the reduction of Europe’s dependence on Russia’s fossil energy industry will speed up the process of oil substitution. The Fed’s interest rate hike and balance sheet shrinkage will curb the upside of international oil prices. Geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict are the most important factors affecting the trend of international crude oil prices，which depend on the intensity of sanctions imposed by the United States and the West on Russia and the degree of Russian countermeasures. It is expected that in 2022 and 2023，the average price of international crude oil will be US$100 and US$90 per barrel respectively.