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谢伏瞻
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    2017~2020年中国药品流通行业发展的特点和趋势及投资价值分析

    摘要

    药品流通行业自2017年起受相关政策影响冲击较大,但整体上依然保持稳定增长。医药分销行业龙头企业抓住有利政策不断提升市场份额;药品零售端呈现集中度提升趋势,借助资本市场国内药店连锁率快速提升,至2020年已达56。5%。从未来发展角度看,医药商业发展更多的是寻找政策阻力较小的新业务机会,主要有三个方向:一是借助集采政策,快速提升终端覆盖密度;二是大力发展高毛利产品配送,如进口创新药品、疫苗、高值耗材及体外诊断试剂等;三是拥抱互联网,线上线下融合,建立ToB(互联网医院、实体医院)及ToC端的互联网销售模式。从二级市场投资角度看,医药分销板块市场悲观预期已大部分释放,横向及纵向估值比较都已在历史低位,继续下跌空间有限。从性价比的角度看,对于长线投资人而言,A股医药分销公司可以逐步进入投资视野。

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    Abstract

    The pharmaceutical distribution industry has been impacted by the relevant policies since 2017,but overall it has maintained stable growth. Leading companies in the pharmaceutical distribution industry have continuously increased their market share by leveraging favorable policies. The retail side of the pharmaceutical industry shows a trend of increasing concentration reaching,and domestic pharmacy chain ratio has reached 55.34% by 2019 using capital investment market. Future business development will rely on seeking new business opportunities which have less policy resistance. The author believes that there are three main directions for future business development:first,rapid increase in terminal coverage density leveraging the centralized procurement policy;second,vigorously develop the distribution of high-margin products,such as imported innovative drugs,vaccines,high-value consumables,and in vitro diagnostic reagents;third,embrace the opportunities from the Internet,integrate online and offline business,and establish to B business(Internet hospitals,physical hospitals)and to C business through online sales model. From the perspective of the secondary market investment,the pessimistic expectations towards the pharmaceutical distribution sector market have been mostly released;horizontal and vertical valuation comparisons have been at historical lows,and thus there is a limited room for further decline. The author believes long-term investors will consider more of the A-share listed pharmaceutical distribution companies because of high cost-effectiveness.

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    作者简介
    贺菊颖:贺菊颖,中信建投证券研究发展部医药行业首席分析师。
    程培:程培,中信建投证券研究发展部医药行业分析师。
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