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    2011~2020年中国钢铁产业发展指数评价

    摘要

    钢铁产业是国民经济的重要组成部分,其发展程度是衡量国家或地区工业化水平的重要指标,具有产业链长、影响面广、累积效应明显等特征。早期经济学家通常采用钢铁产量或人均钢铁产量来评价一个国家或地区的钢铁产业发展水平。然而,单一指标的产业发展评价难以体现产量背后的科技水平、资源消耗、政策支持等因素,尤其是在世界范围内钢铁产能普遍过剩和碳排放政策收紧的时代背景下,产量不再是衡量国家或地区钢铁产业发展水平的唯一标准。本文基于产业经济学的相关理论,从发展基础、发展环境和发展能力3个方面提出一套包含3个一级指标、9个二级指标和22个三级指标的钢铁产业发展指数评价的指标体系,并采用主客观相结合的方法对指标进行赋权,最后采集指标数据,对2011~2020年的中国钢铁产业发展指数进行评价。评价结果表明,中国钢铁产业发展基础稳定,在发展能力显著提升的推动下,整体产业发展态势良好,即使在新冠肺炎疫情突袭而至的2020年,中国钢铁产业依然保持不错的上升势头。但是,在去产能和“双碳”目标政策下,中国钢铁产业发展环境面临深刻复杂的变化。 <<
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    Abstract

    Iron and steel industry is an important part of the national economy and its development is an important indicator of the level of industrialization of a country or region,with the characteristics of a long industrial chain,wide influence and obvious cumulative effects. In the early days,economists usually used steel production or per capita steel production to evaluate the level of development of a country or region’s steel industry. However,it is difficult to reflect the level of technology,resource consumption and policy support behind the industry development evaluation by a single indicator,especially in the context of the general overcapacity of steel worldwide and the tightening of carbon emission policies,production is no longer the only criterion to measure the level of development of a country or region’s steel industry. Based on theories of industrial economics,this report proposes a set of indicators for the evaluation of the steel industry development index from three aspects:development foundation,development environment and development capacity,including three primary indicators,nine secondary indicators and 22 tertiary indicators. The final data was collected to evaluate China’s steel industry development index from 2011 to 2020. The evaluation results show that China’s steel industry is developing on a stable basis,driven by a significant increase in development capacity,and the overall industry is developing in a good manner. However,the environment for the development of China’s steel industry is facing profound and complex changes under the policy of de-capacity and “double carbon target”.

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    作者简介
    闫相斌:闫相斌,北京科技大学副校长、教授、博士生导师,研究方向为电子商务与商务智能、商务数据分析等。
    金家华:金家华,北京科技大学经济管理学院讲师,研究方向为商务数据分析。
    李新:李新,北京科技大学经济管理学院副教授,研究方向为大数据分析与产业预测。
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