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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2021年俄罗斯内政外交及未来走势

    摘要

    2021年俄罗斯内政外交经历了新的考验。俄顺利举行了国家杜马选举,政权党“统一俄罗斯”党取得绝对多数席位,普京又一次在困难的局面下显示了掌控全局的能力。发表了新版国家安全战略,对复杂形势下俄罗斯面临的各种安全威胁做了系统梳理,强调巩固主权安全、政权安全以及文化安全的重要性。在能源价格不断走高的情况下,加快经济转型升级步伐,经济企稳回升的势头比较明显,但高通胀、地区发展不平衡的压力影响着宏观经济的稳定。外交上延续了“转向东方”的政策,与美、欧的对抗仍然没有转机;加强了与非西方国家的合作,强化自身主导的一体化机制,俄白联盟取得重要进展。中俄庆祝《中华人民共和国和俄罗斯联邦睦邻友好合作条约》(以下简称《睦邻友好合作条约》)签署20周年,双边务实合作亮点频现,贸易再创历史新高,在国际事务中加强互动。未来一年俄罗斯不易摆脱内外交困的处境,与美国、北约的地缘政治对抗有可能升级,外部环境更加复杂,要实现普京的大国复兴战略将遇到更多挑战。 <<
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    Abstract

    In 2021,Russia has experienced new tests in both domestic and foreign affairs. The State Duma election was successfully held,and the “United Russia” won an absolute majority. President Putin once again showed his ability to control the overall situation when facing difficulties. He published a new version of national security strategy,systematically sorted out various security threats facing Russia under complex situations,and emphasized the importance of consolidating sovereignty security,regime security and cultural security. In the case of rising energy prices,Russia hoped to seize the new opportunities for economic recovery and development after the epidemic and accelerated the process of economic transformation. But the pressure of high inflation and unbalanced regional development affects its macroeconomy negatively. Diplomatically,Russia continued to pursue a policy of “turning to the east” and its confrontation with the US and Europe has not changed. It has enhanced cooperation with non-Western countries and strengthened its own-led integration mechanism. The Russia-Belarus alliance has made important progress;China and Russia celebrated the 20th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation,and their cooperation has achieved many good results,including the record-high trade volume and increasingly strengthened interaction in international affairs. In the coming year,it will not be easy for Russia to get rid of domestic and foreign difficulties. The geopolitical confrontation with the US and NATO will escalate,and the external environment will become more complex. Putin’s strategy of rejuvenation as a great power will encounter more challenges as well.

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    作者简介
    孙壮志:孙壮志,中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所所长、研究员。
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