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    2020~2021年澳大利亚发展形势分析与展望

    摘要

    2020~2021年,澳大利亚国内政治、经济都相对稳定,虽然先后出现了困难和挑战,但都没有影响到执政党的执政和政策的实施。政府的调整也相对顺利,及时避免了社会政治力量和在野党更大规模的攻击或政治上形成统一力量对政府造成冲击。经济的恢复和新冠肺炎疫情的反复及二者的未来走势直接关系到抗疫能否成功、社会和经济能否顺利回归正常,也会影响新一届澳联邦选举的安排。自然灾害频发和国际组织对澳环境状况的负面评估,引发了澳国内社会的共鸣,社会舆论对政府气候和环境政策的批评使澳大利亚作为发达经济体在环境和气候问题上处境尴尬。但澳大利亚政府的相关政策调整还是相对迟缓,不尽如人意。澳大利亚在对外关系中强调独立性,但是实际政策还是在原有的路上前行,构建印太地区合作,加强与日本事实上的同盟关系,以及继续对改善与中国的关系采取消极的态度,导致中澳双边关系继续徘徊在历史的最低水平。

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    Abstract

    During 2020-2021,Australia,in general,has a relatively stable situation politically and economically. Although there are some challenges and difficulties respectively,they have not greatly impacted upon the ruling parties’administration and its policies’ implementation. Readjustment within the Government for its cabinet in a large scale looks like going on well in a smooth process. So it keeps the opposition party and social political institutions from an united force against the government. The economic recovery this year and the COVID-19 pandemic’s new round across Australia have a combination of happiness and sadness at the same time for the country. It will have close relations with the success of the anti-Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic,normal life for society and economy and the next Federal Parliamental Election. The natural disaster taking places frequently so Australian policies on environment and climate change have been criticized both internally and internationally. As a developed economy,Australia is in an awkward position,but Australian government’s related policies are not much improved. In foreign relations,Australia is stressing more important for the independence. Its policies,however,are not fully following the direction practically. The China-Australia relations have been still in the lowest level in the history since Australian efforts for the Indo-Pacific building,the military alliance relations with Japan and consistent hostile to China.

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    作者简介
    韩锋:韩锋,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院研究员,北京外国语大学特聘教授,中国澳大利亚研究会前会长(2010~2016)。主要研究领域为亚太地区国际关系和安全关系、澳大利亚和新西兰的政治与外交。
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