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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    “十四五”时期中国宏观税负走势研判

    摘要

    宏观税负是观察财政风险的一个视角,尽管其与财政风险没有必然直接的联系,但宏观税负值的高低可以折射一个国家财政风险的大小。本报告首先回顾了中国自1994年以来宏观税负演变特征。具体来说,中国中小口径的宏观税负水平经历了15年的长时间稳步上升,2008年金融危机后平稳增长,2016年至今则是快速下降时期。中国经济发展步入新常态以来,经济下行且减税力度不断加大,2016年以来税收收入占GDP的比重、占一般公共预算收入的比重以及占一般公共预算支出的比重均呈明显下降趋势。税收政策化解公共风险的同时,对财政的支撑作用在减弱,财政风险在聚集。其次,观察世界主要发达经济体,发现其宏观税负在波动中上升。据此,通过对中国“十四五”时期宏观税负走势做出研判,认为“稳定”和“优化”是中国未来宏观税负调整的主基调,并提出了稳定宏观税负的若干改革建议。

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    Abstract

    Macro tax burden is a perspective to observe fiscal risk. Although it is not necessarily directly related to fiscal risk,the level of macro tax burden can reflect the size of a country’s fiscal risk. This report first reviews the evolution characteristics of China’s macro tax burden since 1994. Specifically,the macro tax burden level of small and medium calibers in China has experienced a long and steady rise for 15 years,after the financial crisis in 2008,there was a steady growth,but since 2016,there has been a rapid decline. Since china’s economic development has entered a new normal,the economy has been declining and tax reductions have continued to increase. Since 2016,the proportions of tax revenue to GDP,to general public budget revenue and to general public budget expenditures have all shown a significant downward trend. While tax policy resolves public risks,its supporting role for finance is weakening,and fiscal risks are gathering. Secondly,we observe the world’s major developed economies and find that their macro tax burdens are rising amid fluctuations. Based on this,we made a judgment on the trend of macro tax burden in china during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period,We believe that “stability” and “optimization” are the main keynotes of china’s macro tax burden adjustment in the future,and put forward some reform suggestions to stabilize the macro tax burden.

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    作者简介
    梁季:梁季,经济学博士,中国财政科学研究院公共收入研究中心副主任,研究员,博士生导师。中国税务学会理事,主要研究方向为财税理论与政策。中国财政科学院陈彦廷博士、黄巍硕士对本报告的数据分析有贡献。
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