本报告从山东省地方债运行情况、项目收益专项债情况和偿债能力等三个方面,分析山东省地方政府债券发展情况,并为其下一阶段的发展提供对策建议。2021年以来,新冠肺炎疫情持续演变,经济仍面临下行压力,山东省地方债发行规模大幅增长;发行结构以新增专项债为主,短期债券占比提升。山东省项目收益专项债持续扩容,其募投领域向基建倾斜,但用作项目资本金占比相对较小,且对基建投资的实际撬动效果仍受到多种因素限制。整体看,山东省地方债规模位居全国第1,其财政实力和债务偿付能力较强,债务风险整体可控。基于上述情况,本报告建议加强债务风险监测,妥善应对下一阶段地方债到期高峰;同时有效配置资金投向,合理安排期限结构,充分发挥专项债作为项目资本金的撬动作用;用好地方债务限额,丰富资金投向,积极创新专项债用途,促进产业转型升级。
<<This report will analyze the development of local government bonds in Shandong from three aspects:the operation of local government bonds,the effect brought by the special bonds of project income and the solvency of Shandong,then provide some suggestions for its development of the next stage. With the continuous evolution of COVID-19 epidemic and the increasing downward pressure on the economy,the issuance scale of local government bonds in Shandong has risen rapidly since 2021. The issuance structure is dominated by newly added special bonds and the proportion of short-term bonds is increased. Besides,the project income special bond funds continue to increase. Its investment is skewed towards infrastructure but only a little used as project capital,the actual leveraging result is still limited by many factors. On the whole,Shandong’s local government bonds scale ranks first in China,its financial solvency is strong and the debt risk is under control. Based on the above situation,this report suggests that it is necessary to strengthen debt risk monitoring and properly deal with the peak of local debt maturity in the next stage;at the same time,allocate capital investment effectively,arrange the maturity structure rationally,and make full of the leveraging role of special bonds as project capital;in addition,make the beat of the local debt limitation,diversify capital investment,and innovate the use of special debt actively,promote industrial transformation and upgrading.
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