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谢伏瞻
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    2021年广东省地方政府债券分析报告

    摘要

    广东省地方债存量规模位列全国第三,2021年第二季度以来发行明显提速,发行总规模同比扩大;发行结构以新增专项债为主,长期债占比有所下降。广东省项目收益专项债持续扩容,其募投领域向市政和产业园区基础设施、交通基础设施、民生服务和生态环保倾斜,但募集资金较少用作项目资本金,对基建投资的实际撬动效果仍受到多因素限制。整体看,广东省地方政府债务限额仍有一定的空间,其财政实力和债务偿付能力较强,债务风险整体可控。展望下一阶段,本报告建议广东省地方政府进一步丰富资金投向,可将地方债资金聚焦科研领域和公共治理领域。

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    Abstract

    The scale of subsisting local government bond issued by Guangdong ranked third among all the provincial administrative regions in China. The bond issuance in Guangdong has been accelerated since the second quarter,while recording a year-on-year increase in scale. Newly added special bonds dominated the new issuance this year,while long-term bonds have decrease in proportion. Besides,the project income special bond funds continue to increase. Its investment was skewed towards infrastructure as well as education,health and social welfare,but only a small portion of the proceeds has been used as project capital,the actual leveraging result is still limited by many factors. On the whole,Guangdong’s local government debt ceiling still has some space,its debt solvency is strong and the debt risk is under control. Looking forward to the next stage,this report suggests that Guangdong local governments should invest funds in various fields and focus local debt funds on scientific research and public governance.

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    作者简介
    贺文俊:贺文俊,中诚信国际政府公共评级一部副总监、高级分析师,主要研究领域为地方债与城投行业。
    程成:程成,金融学博士,中诚信国际政府公共评级一部分析师,主要研究领域为地方债与城投行业。
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