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    2021年湖北省地方政府债券分析报告

    摘要

    湖北省地方债存量规模居全国中游靠前位置,地方债发行较为活跃且发行规模逐年扩大、发行成本逐年降低。2020年,受新冠肺炎疫情影响,湖北省地方债发行放缓,发行时间主要集中在第二、三季度,2021年以来地方债发行时间有所提前;发行结构以新增专项债为主,中长期债券占比较高。湖北省项目收益专项债持续扩容,其募投领域向棚改倾斜,但未用作项目资本金。整体来看,湖北省地方政府债务限额仍有一定空间,但一般公共预算收入无法完全覆盖债务余额,面临一定偿债压力。展望下一阶段,本报告建议湖北地方政府进一步丰富资金投向,重点关注省内再融资能力,做好债务风险防控。

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    Abstract

    The stock scale of local government bonds in Hubei ranks among the upper middle in China,the pace of issuing local government bonds in Hubei is relatively active and the scale of issuance increases yearly,while the issuance costs are decreasing. Due to the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic,local bond issuance in Hubei slowed down in 2020. The issue time is mainly concentrated in the second and third quarters. Since 2021,the pace of local bond issuance has been advanced. The issuance structure was dominated by the new-added special bonds,and the proportion of long-term bonds increased. The project income special bonds in Hubei continues to expand,and its raised investment field is inclined to renovation of shanty towns,but it is not used as project capital. On the whole,there is still some space for the debt limit of local governments in Hubei,but the general public budget revenue cannot fully cover the debt balance,facing certain debt repayment pressure. From the perspective of long-term sustainable development,this report suggests that Hubei local government could enrich their investment diversification,and focus on the refinancing capacity in the province in the meantime in terms of controlling the debt-risks.

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    作者简介
    周迪:周迪,中诚信国际政府公共评级一部分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
    国采薇:国采薇,中诚信国际政府公共评级一部助理分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
    林瀚:林瀚,中诚信国际政府公共评级一部助理分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
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