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    2021年宁夏回族自治区地方政府债券分析报告

    摘要

    宁夏回族自治区地方债存量规模较小,在全国各省(区、市)排名中居于靠后位置。2021年1~9月,宁夏地方债发行速度整体放缓,期限较上年同期有所缩短,以5年和10年为主,发行利率及发行利差有所下降。具体从项目收益专项债来看,2021年1~9月,宁夏无新增项目收益专项债,2020年项目收益专项债发行规模也显著缩小,主要投向交通基础设施、市政和产业园区基础设施领域,涉及范围较广且收益覆盖尚可,但对基建投资撬动有限。受地区经济及财政实力较弱的影响,宁夏财政平衡能力较弱,对上级补助依赖性较强。此外,2020年,宁夏债务率较往年增幅较大且超过国际警戒标准,宁夏未来或存在一定债务压力,但地方政府债务相对举债空间尚可,整体风险可控。

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    Abstract

    Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region(hereinafter referred to as “Ningxia”)has a relatively small stock of local government existing bonds and ranks at the bottom of the country. From January to September of 2021,the issuance of local government bonds in Ningxia slowed down as a whole,and the maturity was shortened compared with last year,with five-year and ten-year periods as the main ones. The issuance cost and issuance spreads decreased. Specifically,from the perspective of project income special bonds,there will be no new project income special bonds in Ningxia from January to September of 2021,and the issuance of project income special bonds in 2020 will also decrease significantly. The investment mainly includes transportation infrastructure,municipal and industrial park infrastructure. And people’s livelihood services and other fields,covering a wide range and reasonable income coverage,but limited leverage on the scale of infrastructure. Affected by the weak economic and financial strength of the region,Ningxia’s financial balance ability is weak,and it is highly dependent on superior subsidies. In addition,at the end of 2020,the debt ratio of Ningxia has increased significantly compared with previous years and exceeded the international warning standard. Ningxia may have certain debt pressure in the future,but the local government debt has relatively good borrowing space,and the overall risk is controllable.

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    作者简介
    马家瑶:马家瑶,中诚信国际政府公共评级一部助理分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
    黄应裴:黄应裴,中诚信国际政府公共评级一部分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
    袁野:袁野,中诚信国际政府公共评级一部分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
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