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    2021年山西省地方政府债券分析报告

    摘要

    2021年以来,国内疫情得到基本控制,财政对冲风险的压力有所减轻,叠加专项债额度下达较晚以及专项债审核趋严等因素,山西省地方政府债券发行节奏整体有所放缓,发行规模较上年同期有所缩小。随着山西省信用环境逐渐修复,地方债发行成本趋于下降,发行期限有所缩短。项目收益专项债仍主要投向市政和产业园区基础设施、棚改、民生服务及交通基础设施领域,项目本息覆盖情况尚可,专项债对投资增长的撬动效应仍有较大释放空间。从宏观来看,山西省债务率、负债率尚可,债务到期分布较为平均,还本付息压力相对可控,但仍需注意成本控制等。

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    Abstract

    Since 2021,the COVID-19 epidemic has been basically controlled,the pressure of financial hedging risks has been eased,combined with factors such as the late issuance of special debt quota and the stricter examination of special debt,the overall pace of local government bond issuance in Shanxi has slowed down,and the issuance scale has decreased compared with the same period last year. With the gradual restoration of Shanxi’s credit environment,the cost of issuing local bonds tends to decline,and the issuing period is shortened. Project revenue special bonds are still mainly invested in municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction,rundown renovation,people’s livelihood services and other areas. The coverage of principal and interest of projects is adequate,and there is still much room for the leveraging effect of special bonds on investment growth. From the macro point of view,Shanxi’s debt to local government financial resources ratio and debt to GDP ratio are acceptable,the distribution of debt maturity is relatively smooth,and the debt repayment pressure is relatively controllable,but we still need to pay attention to cost control and the sustainability of finance and debt.

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    作者简介
    张敏:张敏,中诚信国际政府公共评级一部副总监,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
    李昊:李昊,中诚信国际政府公共评级一部分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
    赵轶群:赵轶群,中诚信国际政府公共评级一部助理分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等。
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