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谢伏瞻
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    2021年辽宁省地方政府债券分析报告

    摘要

    2021年,在“抗疫情、稳增长”的背景下,辽宁省地方债发行节奏加快,发行规模持续扩大;发行结构仍以一般债为主,长期债券占比有所下降。辽宁省新增专项债进一步扩容,其中用作项目资本金的债券规模持续增加,但对基建投资的撬动效应有所减弱。整体看,辽宁省面临人口持续外流、经济发展缓慢等实际问题,同时政府债务率较高、偿付能力偏弱对其财政投资形成一定限制,但辽宁省地方政府债务距限额尚有一定空间,同时省政府重视地方政府债务管理,债务风险整体可控。展望下一阶段,本报告建议辽宁省政府进一步丰富资金投向,可将地方债资金聚焦在优化产业结构等方面。

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    Abstract

    With the of formidable task of combating the COVID-19 epidemic while stabilizing the economy,the issuance scale of local government bonds in Liaoning has still expanded rapidly,and the pace of issuing local government bonds has been descending. The issuance structure is dominated by general bonds and the proportion of long-term bonds has increased. Besides,the newly added special bonds is continuing to increasing,the proportion of bonds which are used for project capital regarding infrastructure has further increased,however the impact on the leverage was not significant. On the whole,Liaoning province has been facing the problems of population outflow and slow economic development. At the same time,the high ratio of government debt and the low debt-paying ability restrict the government investment. However,the local government debt ceiling still has a large space,with the government taking the liquidity of government debt seriously,the debt risk is under control. Looking forward to the next stage,this report suggests that Liaoning province local governments should invest funds in various areas and focus local debt funds on the optimizing of industrial structure.

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    作者简介
    闫璐璐:闫璐璐,中诚信国际政府公共评级一部分析师,主要研究领域为地方政府债券、基础设施投融资行业等
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