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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2021~2022年恒大风险事件及房企违约形势研判

    摘要

    2021年恒大风险事件持续发酵并给房地产市场和金融市场造成较大负面影响,恒大风险事件的原因是主业大肆加杠杆并盲目多元化经营,这是资本无序扩张的重要表现。除恒大风险事件外,房企的各类债权类产品都出现了大量违约,这意味着行业风险远比市场感受的还要严重;究其原因,是房地产市场的长期基本面发生了变化,并且我国的融资制度与当下这种转变并不匹配。尽管监管当局采取了稳预期和信贷托底的措施,但市场依然存在下行压力,房企爆雷违约现象还会时有发生。鉴于此,短期政策目标依然要坚持“稳字当头”,尤其是防止泡沫破裂;长期政策目标应适应基本面的变化并进行相应的制度改革。

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    Abstract

    In 2021,Evergrande risk event continued to ferment and had a great negative impact on the real estate market and financial market. Evergrande risk event was caused by high leverage and blindly diversified operation. Besides Evergrande risk events,a large number of real estate companies’ defaults occurred,which means that the industry risks are far more serious than the market perception. The reason is that the long-term fundamentals of the real estate market have changed,and China’s financing system does not match the current change. Despite the measures taken by the authorities to stabilize expectations and prop up credit,there is still downward pressure on the market and defaults of real estate companies will still occur from time to time. In view of this,the short-term policy goal should still adhere to the “stability”,especially to prevent the bursting of bubbles;long-term policy objectives should adapt to fundamental changes and carry out corresponding institutional reforms.

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    作者简介
    蔡真:蔡真,经济学博士,中国社会科学院金融研究所副研究员,国家金融与发展实验室房地产金融研究中心主任,研究方向为房地产金融。
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