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    2021年中国房地产金融市场运行分析报告

    摘要

    2021年个人住房抵押贷款余额增速持续放缓,第四季度增速为11。3%,为2012年以来季度最低值。个人按揭放缓的主要原因是一些银行按揭指标达到“贷款两集中”的上限。房企融资方面的突出特点是,开发贷增速持续下降,第三季度达到历史最低点0。02%,这主要是受“三道红线”政策影响;此后央行多次表态金融机构对“三道红线”理解有误并试图扭转预期,但效果并不明显,四季度开发贷增速仅上升到0。09%。2022年将是房地产金融政策纠偏的一年,预计个人购房贷款余额增速将一改2021年的颓势,个人按揭贷款利率也将进一步下行;房企融资方面尽管给予了较多政策支持,但市场预期未见企稳,房企融资整体形势并不乐观,其恢复或需要较长的时间。房地产金融风险主要集中于房地产企业,尽管大规模违约的势头会有所遏制,但房企违约事件还会持续爆发,应特别关注在三四线城市布局较重的房企的违约风险。

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    Abstract

    The growth rate of outstanding residential mortgage loans continued to slow in 2021,reaching 11.3% in the fourth quarter. The main reason for the slowdown in personal mortgage is that some banks’ mortgage have reached the upper limit of policy. The growth rate of development loans continues to decline,reaching a record low of 0.02% in the third quarter,mainly due to the impact of the “three red lines” policy. Since then,the central bank has stated that financial institutions misunderstood the “three red lines” and tried to reverse expectations,but the effect was not obvious. 2022 will be the year of correction of policies. We expect the growth rate of outstanding residential mortgage loans to change from the decline in 2021,and the interest rate of residential mortgage loans to further decline. Housing enterprise financing has given more policy support,but the market is not expected to see stabilization,the situation of housing enterprise financing is not optimistic,its recovery may need longer time. Real estate financial risks are mainly concentrated in real estate enterprises. Although the momentum of large-scale default will be curbed,the default events of real estate enterprises will continue to break out. Special attention should be paid to enterprises with program heavily distribution in the third and fourth tier city.

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    作者简介
    蔡真:蔡真,经济学博士,中国社会科学院金融研究所副研究员,国家金融与发展实验室房地产金融研究中心主任,研究方向为房地产金融。
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