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    2021年中国房地产投融资分析报告

    摘要

    2021年房地产市场出现大幅波动,由上半年高增长到下半年深度调整,房地产投资增速逐月降至4。4%,为近5年来的最低水平。下半年房企融资出现断崖式下降,国内债券、地产海外债券、国内贷款、房地产信托、销售回款当月数据同比减少,各项应付款多数月份当月数据同比减少,房企流动性压力快速上升,部分民营房企出现债务违约。2022年,在经济稳增长目标下,房地产市场发展的政策环境宽松,合理的房地产融资将获得支持,出险房企逐步出清,预计房地产投融资规模将保持基本平稳。

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    Abstract

    The real estate market fluctuated sharply in 2021,with a rapid growth in the first half of the year to a deep drawback in the second half of the year. The growth rate of real estate investment fell month to month to 4.4%,the lowest level in recent 5 years. In the second half of the year,the financing data of real estate enterprises plummeted. Renminbi domestic bonds,oversea bonds,domestic loans,real estate trusts,and sales receipts declined monthly on a YoY basis. Various payables decreased YoY in most months,and the liquidity pressure of real estate enterprises increased rapidly with some private real estate enterprises defaulted on their debts. In 2022,under the goal of stable economic growth,the policy environment for the real estate market shall be relaxed,reasonable financing shall be supported,and the process of marketing clearing of defaulted real estate enterprises shall gradually proceed. It is expected that the scale of real estate investment and financing will remain basically stable.

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    作者简介
    刘琳:刘琳,博士,中国宏观经济研究院研究员,研究方向为房地产经济学。
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