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    2021年中国商业不动产市场分析报告

    摘要

    2021年,全球经济增长放缓,中国经济持续复苏带动投资信心,但持续2年多的新冠肺炎疫情时有反复,加上国家对房地产加大力度“去杠杆”调控,市场更趋保守,商业不动产市场继续承压前行,至年底仍未恢复至疫情前水平。购物中心市场存量增速呈下降趋势,空置率逐渐接近疫情前水平;办公楼市场整体需求周期性反弹,吸纳量再创新高、空置率略有降低、租金持续下调;酒店市场整体开始恢复,投资活跃,头部企业仍保持优势和速度,而中端酒店仍然领跑;公寓市场住房租赁政策全方位规范,房间规模快增,房企系品牌领跑,租金虽有增长但仍未恢复至疫情前水平。展望2022年,俄乌冲突带来的国际形势复杂及国内疫情形势的不确定性,都将对商业不动产造成较大影响。预计购物中心压力继续升温,但集中度进一步提高;办公楼供应量吸纳量同增,但空置率继续攀升;酒店市场受疫情影响预计仍恢复缓慢;公寓市场继续保持高活跃度,模式将向更轻或更重发展。

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    Abstract

    In 2021,global economic growth slowed,while China’s continued economic recovery has driven investment confidence. However,the COVID-19 outbreak lasted for more than two years and the country is increasingly strict in the implementation of real estate “de-leveraging” regulation strategy. As a result,the market became more conservative,and the commercial real estate market continued to be under pressure and still had not recovered to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year. As for the shopping mall market,the growth rate of the stock market is decreasing,and the vacancy rate is gradually approaching the pre-epidemic level. As for office buildings market,the overall demand rebounds periodically. Its intake is at a new high and its vacancy rate is down slightly and rents continue to fall. As for hotel market,the overall recovery is beginning and investment is active. Its head companies still maintain the advantage and speed,while the mid-end hotels still lead the way. As for apartment market,housing rental policies are fully standardized,and the number of rooms is increasing rapidly. With real estate brands leading the way,rents have increased,but they are still not back to pre-epidemic levels. Looking ahead to 2022,the complex international situation brought about by the Russia-Ukraine war and the uncertainty of the domestic epidemic situation will have a great impact on the commercial real estate. It is expected that the shopping center pressure will continue to rise,but the concentration degree will further increase. The absorption of office building supply increases,but the vacancy rate continues to rise. The hotel market is expected to recover slowly as before due to the impact of the epidemic. The apartment market continues to be highly active and the model will evolve to be lighter or heavier.

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    作者简介
    杨泽轩:杨泽轩,万商俱乐部创始人,上海万茂科技创始人。
    孟磊:孟磊,万商俱乐部商业研究院院长,上海万茂科技合伙人。
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