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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2021年中国住宅市场分析报告

    摘要

    2021年我国住宅市场总体保持平稳运行,全国新房销售面积和销售金额再创历史新高,二手房销售规模同比下降。年内市场波动较大,上半年市场偏热,三季度市场快速下行,四季度在金融信贷环境改善下房地产市场筑底。预计2022年住宅供给需求将逐步修复,但行业发展仍面临房企投资动能减弱、城市市场分化加剧等挑战。建议提高各类政策的协调性、渐进性、稳定性、针对性,进一步优化“三线四档”、房地产贷款集中度管理、土地集中出让等长效机制。

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    Abstract

    In 2021,China’s residential real estate market has maintained stable as a whole. Both area sold and transaction volume of new homes reached a record high,while the transaction volume of existing houses decreased on a YoY basis. During the first half of the year,the market was quite vibrant,however,the market turned cold rapidly after June. During the fourth quarter,the real estate market bottomed out as the financial and credit environment began to improve. By and large,we expect that the residential real estate market will gradually recover in 2022. However,the future development of the real estate industry could still be plagued by risk factors,such as weakening investment by real estate companies and intensified differentiation of the urban market. We suggest that public policies could improve in terms of coordination,gradualism,and stability,and be more targeted. We also suggest that the authorities consider further optimizing the design of existing long-term mechanisms,such as the “three red lines”,real estate loan concentration management,and centralized land transfer.

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    作者简介
    许小乐:许小乐,贝壳研究院首席市场分析师,清华大学中国社会经济数据研究中心特聘专家,研究方向为住房政策与房地产市场。
    刘丽杰:刘丽杰,贝壳研究院市场分析师,研究方向为住房政策与房地产市场。
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