In 2022，China’s real estate market environment is in turmoil and change，the short-term impact and the medium-term impact of the epidemic are still continuing，and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine will seriously impact the global economy. The price of the means of production in the domestic circulation field still has a continuous rising trend after the large fluctuations in the early period，and the rising pressure of the construction and operation costs of real estate development enterprises increases. Data analysis shows that the development of China’s real estate industry is transforming，and China’s real estate market is entering a new stage of high-quality development of reducing quantity and improving quality. The model predicts that in 2022，fixed asset investment and real estate development investment will increase by 4.6% and 0.8% respectively，the land purchase area will fall by 12.7% but the average transaction price will increase by 24.1%，and the commercial housing sales area will grow by 1.7% and 4.5% respectively. The average sales price of new commercial housing will reach 10419 yuan/m 2，up 2.8% compared with 2021.