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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    山东省人口自然结构变化及趋势:从“十三五”到“十四五”

    摘要

    人口自然结构是人口经济结构和人口社会结构的基础,人口自然结构变化会引起人口经济结构和人口社会结构变化,因此,人口自然结构是经济社会发展不可忽视的一个重要变量。本报告利用山东省统计局发布的数据和山东省第六次人口普查数据,分析了“十三五”时期山东省人口自然结构及其发展变化情况,对“十四五”时期人口自然结构变化趋势做出了预测。本报告认为,“十三五”时期山东省人口自然结构具有人口规模逐步扩大、总人口性别比逐步减小、年龄结构老化程度持续加深、人口负担系数升高等特征,“十四五”时期山东省人口自然结构将表现出出生人口数量减少并趋于稳定、人口年龄结构进一步老化和社会负担加重、劳动年龄人口老龄化程度进一步加深等特征。为此,在提炼山东省人口自然结构影响因素和面临问题的基础上,本报告提出了持续增加新生儿供给、为儿童少年创设良好的生活环境、继续实行积极的就业政策、千方百计解决老年人口问题等面向人口自然结构均衡的对策建议。

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    Abstract

    Population natural structure is the foundation of population economic structure and population social structure. Changes in population natural structure will cause changes in population economic structure and population social structure. Therefore,population natural structure is an important variable that cannot be ignored in economic and social development. This report uses the data released by the Shandong Provincial Bureau of Statistics and the sixth census data of Shandong Province to analyze the current situation of population natural structure of Shandong Province during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and its development and changes. The trends of changes were predicted. This report believes that population natural structure of Shandong Province during the 13th Five-Year Plan period has the characteristics of gradual expansion of population size,gradual reduction of the sex ratio of the total population,continuous deepening of the age structure,and rising population burden coefficient. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,population natural structure of the province will show the characteristics of the decrease and stabilization of the number of births,the further aging of the population age structure and the heavier social burden,and the further deepening of the aging of the working-age population. To this end,on the basis of refining the influencing factors and problems of population natural structure of Shandong Province,this report puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for population natural structure,such as continuing to increase the supply of newborns,creating a good living environment for children and adolescents,continuing to implement active employment policies,and doing everything possible to solve the problem of the elderly population.

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    作者简介
    李兰永:李兰永,山东社会科学院政策研究室副研究员,主要研究方向为人口理论与人口政策、人口学研究方法、人口与社会保障。
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