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谢伏瞻
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    2021年渔业经济形势及2022年展望

    摘要

    2021年,渔业经济总体运行平稳,绿色高质量发展成效显著。水产品产量6693万吨,增长2。2%,一、二、三产业结构和养捕结构有所优化。水产品交易量增长明显,增幅为14。2%;受基数效应、成本推动等因素共同作用,上半年大宗淡水鱼主导了水产品价格上涨,下半年水产品总体价格趋于稳定。水产品进出口量减额增,贸易量为738万吨,下降5。0%,贸易额为360。4亿美元,增长率高达13。7%。展望2022年,渔业经济运行的宏观环境和行业态势基本恢复至常态,中国渔业生产将保持稳定、小幅增加,预测水产品产量增长至约6760万吨,增长1。0%;引致水产品价格大幅波动的因素存在的可能性不大,海水产品批发市场价格将稳中有增,淡水产品价格将在16元/公斤的高位水平上小幅波动运行;水产品贸易大概率将恢复至正常年份水平,贸易额约为380亿美元,增长5。4%,进口增速将高于出口增速,贸易顺差收窄至约60亿美元。 <<
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    关键词: 渔业贸易水产品

    Abstract

    In 2021,the overall operation of fishery economy was stable,and remarkable achievements were made in green and high-quality development. The output of aquatic products was 66.9 million tons,an increase of 2.2%. The structure of the primary,secondary and tertiary industries and the structure of breeding and catching were optimized. The trading volume of aquatic products increased significantly,with an increase of 14.2%. Affected by the base effect,cost driven,supply tightening,demand pull and other factors,in the first half of the year,bulk freshwater fish led to an increase in the prices for aquatic products,and the overall prices in the second half of the year tended to stabilize. Mainly due to the normalization of epidemic management and control,the optimization of imported products structure,the recovery of domestic production capacity and export business,the imports and exports of aquatic products reduced in quantity but increased in volumes. The trade quantity was 7.38 million tons,a decrease of 5.0%,but the trade volume was 36.04 billion U.S.dollars,with a growth rate as high as 13.7%. In 2022,the macro environment and industry situation of fishery economic operation will basically return to be normal. China’s fishery production will remain stable and increase slightly. The output of aquatic products will increase to 67.6 million tons,an increase of 1.0%. It is unlikely that the factors causing price fluctuations in the aquatic product market will exist. The prices for marine products in the wholesale market will increase steadily,and the prices for freshwater products will fluctuate at a high level of 16 Yuan/kg. The aquatic product trade will likely return to the level of normal years,with the trade volume of about 38.0 billion U.S.dollars,an increase of 5.4%. The growth rate of imports will be higher than that of exports,and the trade surplus will narrow to about 6.0 billion U.S.dollars.

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    Keywords:
    作者简介
    刘子飞:刘子飞,管理学博士,中国水产科学研究院副研究员,主要研究领域为渔业经济与政策、资源与环境经济、海洋经济与碳汇。
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