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    2021年畜牧业经济形势及2022年展望

    摘要

    与2020年比较,2021年畜产品产量明显增加,其中猪肉和生鲜乳增幅较大,分别增长28。8%和7。1%。猪肉进口量大幅下降,降幅接近16%;牛肉、羊肉和乳制品进口量增长明显,分别增长10。1%、12。5%和18。7%;禽肉进口量稳中有降,降幅为4。7%。受供需形势等因素影响,猪肉价格大幅下滑,其他畜产品价格小幅波动。2021年度内生猪养殖效益下降明显,奶牛养殖盈利状况波动上升。预计2022年上半年生猪价格依然面临下行挑战,下半年生猪价格将触底反弹;2022年牛羊肉供给保障能力将稳步增强,价格将维持高位震荡;禽肉产业发展受生猪产业影响较大,2022年禽肉供需情况较为宽松,价格波动较大;乳制品消费需求继续增长,国内原料奶价格将保持高位运行,乳制品进口量将继续增加,但增幅将有所减小。 <<
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    Abstract

    In 2021,the output of livestock products increased significantly compared with 2020,of which pork and raw milk increased by 28.8% and 7.1%,respectively. Pork imports fell sharply,a decrease of nearly 16%. The imports of beef,mutton and dairy products grew significantly,up by 10.1%,12.5% and 18.7%,respectively. Poultry imports fell steadily by 4.7%. Affected by the supply and demand situation and other factors,the price for pig meat dropped sharply,and the prices for other livestock products fluctuated slightly. In 2021,the benefit of pig breeding decreased significantly,and the profitability of dairy farming increased with fluctuations. It is predicted that the pig price will remain face downward challenges in the first half of 2022 and hit the bottom and rebound in the second half of the year. In 2022,the supply guarantee capacity of beef and mutton will be steadily enhanced,and the prices will remain high and volatile. The development of the poultry industry will be greatly affected by the pig industry. In 2022,the supply and demand of poultry meat will be relatively relaxed with large price fluctuations. The consumption demand of dairy products will continue to grow,and the price for domestic raw milk will remain high. The imports of dairy products will continue to increase,but the growth rate is expected to slow down.

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    Keywords:
    作者简介
    罗千峰:罗千峰,管理学博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所助理研究员,主要研究方向为畜牧业经济。
    韩磊:韩磊,管理学博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所副研究员,主要研究方向为畜牧业经济、农产品市场。
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