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    2021~2022年北京市金融运行形势分析与预测

    摘要

    本报告分析了2021年北京市金融运行特点发现,一是金融总量保持合理增长,信贷对实体经济支持力度稳固;二是社会融资规模较疫情前多增,金融业对实体经济总体支持力度较大;三是金融对重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度持续显著增强,服务实体经济质效进一步提升;四是贷款利率降至有统计数据以来最低水平,让利实体经济效果显著。应关注存贷款总量在上年同期高基数基础上要实现稳增长所面临的压力,实体经济转型阵痛以及疫情冲击的衍生风险或向金融体系扩散,房地产金融风险有所暴露、房地产企业合理融资需求有待满足,以及偿债压力或有所增大等问题。预计2022年北京市以新发展理念更好地发挥对“十四五”开局和经济高质量发展的支持作用,货币信贷总量和社会融资规模稳定增长、流动性合理充裕、金融结构稳步优化、综合融资成本稳中有降。

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    Abstract

    In 2021,the total financial volume of Beijing will maintain a reasonable growth. Credit support for the real economy has being solid. First,the scale of social financing has increased compared with the same period before the epidemic. The financial industry has given greater support to the real economy in general. Second,financial support for key areas and weak links has increased. The quality and efficiency of serving the real economy were further improved. Third,the loan interest rate has dropped to the lowest level since statistics,which has a significant effect on benefiting the real economy. It should be noted that the total amount of deposits and loans is facing challenges to achieve steady growth on the basis of the high base in the same period last year. The transition pains of the real economy and the derived risks from the impact of the epidemic may spread to the financial system. And real estate financial risks have been exposed,and the reasonable financing needs of real estate companies have yet to be met. It is expected that in 2022,Beijing will better play a supporting role in the start of the “14th Five-Year Plan” and high-quality economic development with new development concepts. The total amount of money and credit and the scale of social financing have grown steadily,liquidity is reasonably sufficient,the financial structure has been steadily optimized,and comprehensive financing costs have been steadily declining.

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    作者简介
    高菲:高菲,经济学博士,中国人民银行营业管理部金融研究处干部,主要研究方向为宏观经济、国际金融等。
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