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李培林
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    2020~2021年西部地区重大发展战略对产业高质量发展的影响效应评估

    摘要

    本报告使用西部地区12个省区市2000~2018年的地级市数据,通过构建DID模型对西部地区产业高质量发展的影响因素进行探究,同时进一步研究相关政策的实施是否会导致这些关键因素产生明显变化,进而影响到三次产业的高质量发展。从发展效率来看,西部地区政府主导模式下的固定资产投资在当期对其他资源产生了“挤出效应”,有一些低效投资和重复建设拉低了区域的全要素生产率。从发展阶段来看,西部地区绝大部分城市仍处于工业化中期阶段,这个现实条件决定了新型城镇化战略实施对于产业高质量发展的影响相对有限。从发展区位来看,西部地区“核心”与“外围”城市产业发展对传统要素投入的依赖依然显著。长江经济带发展战略所覆盖主要城市的固定资产投资“挤出效应”相对不明显。从发展动力来看,西部地区的产学研对接仍存在一定阻碍,创新成果对区域产业的高质量发展尚未起到显著的助推作用。

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    Abstract

    As used herein,12 provinces in the Western Region from 2000 to 2018 of prefecture-level city data are used in the research of western region high-quality industrial development factors by constructing DID model. As for further study we mainly focus on whether the implementation of relevant policies will lead to obvious changes in these key factors,which will affect the high-quality development of the three industries as well. It is found that from the perspective of development efficiency,the fixed asset investment under the government-led model in the western region has had a “crowding-out effect” on other resources in the current period,and there are many inefficient investments and repeated construction. From the perspective of the development stage,most cities in the western region are still in the middle stage of industrialization. This realistic condition determines the impact of the implementation of the new urbanization strategy on the high-quality industrial development. From the perspective of development location,the industrial development of “core” and “peripheral” cities in the western region is still significantly dependent on traditional factor input. The reliance on traditional factor inputs remains significant. The “crowding-out effect” of fixed asset investment in major cities covered by the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is relatively unconspicuous. From the perspective of development momentum,there are still some obstacles to the docking of industry,university and research in the western region.

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    作者简介
    叶堂林:叶堂林,首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为区域经济。
    李国梁:李国梁,首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院,区域经济学博士研究生,研究方向为区域经济。
    刘莹:刘莹,首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院,区域经济学硕士研究生,研究方向为区域经济。
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