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    中国新能源行业发展趋势与投资机遇

    摘要

    双碳“1+N”政策体系的构建与更新为新能源行业的发展提供了政策支持。技术创新和产业规模化效应带来的降本增效有利于推动新能源行业高速发展。“十四五”期间,预计光伏和风电年均装机量达75吉瓦和45吉瓦。光伏行业硅料供应预计持续紧张,电池片随N型技术成熟成本降低趋势明显,组件一体化降本优势显现。风电行业风电装机规模快速增长,风机大型化降本是长期趋势,产品技术升级为中长期成长提供支撑。随着补贴政策退坡,新能源汽车行业从政策驱动转向市场驱动,电动化渗透加速,动力电池通过技术创新具备全球竞争力,预期行业将继续保持高景气。

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    Abstract

    The construction and update of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality “1+N” policy system provide strong support for the development of the new energy industry. The cost reduction and efficiency increase brought by technological innovation and economies of scale lead to the rapid development of new energy industry. During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period,photovoltaic and wind power installations are expected to reach an annual average of 75 GW and 45 GW. The silicon supply of photovoltaic industry is expected to remain tight. The cost of cells will decrease significantly with the maturity of N-type technology,and the component integration brings cost reduction. The installed scale of wind power industry is growing rapidly. It is a long-term trend to reduce the average cost by enlarging the scale of wind turbines,and the upgrading of product technology ensures long-term growth. With the rollback of subsidy policies,the new energy vehicle industry transforms from a policy-driven industry to a market-driven one. With the increasing penetration rate of electric vehicle and global competitiveness of power battery through technological innovation,the new energy vehicle industry is expected to thrive in a long period.

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    作者简介
    曹曼文:曹曼文,文学硕士,建投投资有限责任公司/建投华文投资有限责任公司研究部副总裁,主要研究方向为工业制造、文化消费。
    应战:应战,现就读于清华大学。
    袁春健:袁春健,金融学硕士,建投投资有限责任公司/建投华文投资有限责任公司高级投资经理。
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