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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2021年中国资本市场发展回顾与2022年展望

    摘要

    2021年,在各国央行支持政策刺激下,主要经济体实现快速复苏,偏松的流动性环境支撑风险资产,金融市场表现整体向好。我国股票市场在经济修复与通胀上行带动下上涨,债券市场走出小牛市,基金市场也随之量价齐升,大宗商品价格整体涨幅较大。资本市场改革进程加速,深市主板中小板平稳合并,加速构建多层级追责体系,北交所试点注册制改革落地。预期2022年全球货币环境“由松转紧”,我国经济稳增长压力加大,通胀可控,货币政策稳中趋松,财政政策发力可期。关于资本市场进一步改革趋势,预期2022年将全面实施注册制,配套制度改革加速推进,进一步完善资管行业细则,为资本设置“红绿灯”制度,支持金融产品丰富创新并进一步推动资本市场高水平双向开放。展望2022年,股票市场将继续牛市,债券市场利率将进一步下行,信用债分化加剧,大宗商品价格整体将趋于下行。

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    Abstract

    In 2021,stimulated by the support policies of central banks,major economies achieved rapid recovery,the loose liquidity environment supported risky assets,and the overall performance of financial markets improved. Driven by economic recovery and upward inflation,China’s stock market rose. The bond market came out of bull market. The fund market also rose in volume and price. And the overall increase of bulk commodities was large. The process of capital market reform was accelerated,the Shenzhen main board and small and medium-sized boards were merged smoothly,the construction of a multi-level accountability system was accelerated,and the pilot registration system reform of the Beijing stock exchange was implemented. In 2022,the global monetary environment will “change from loose to tight”,the pressure on China’s steady economic growth will increase,inflation will be controllable,monetary policy will become loose in stability,and the strength of fiscal policy can be expected. The capital market will fully implement the registration system,accelerate the reform of supporting systems,further improve the detailed rules of the asset management industry,set up a “traffic light” system for capital,and further promote the high-level two-way opening of the capital market. In 2022,the stock market will continue to be bullish,the interest rate in the bond market will further decline,the differentiation of credit bonds will intensify,and the bulk commodities will tend to decline as a whole.

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    作者简介
    高彦如:高彦如,金融学硕士,中级经济师,现供职于中国建投投资研究院,主要从事金融资管方面的研究。
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