成本高是制约我国新能源汽车发展的重要因素之一。本报告构建了纯电动和燃料电池汽车经济性综合分析比较模型。基于新能源汽车各关键零部件的学习率曲线,对纯电动和燃料电池乘用车、客车和货车的未来制造成本趋势进行了分析和比较。同时结合中国私家车、出租车、公交车和物流车四个应用场景,对各场景下纯电动和燃料电池汽车使用成本进行了分析。最后比较了未来不同时点两种技术路线下的总成本差异。研究发现,全功率燃料电池乘用车到2030年后可与纯电动乘用车制造成本接近,当前应加快燃料电池产业化能力、加快推广并降低成本。
<<The higher cost of new energy vehicles is one of the important factors restricting the development of new energy vehicles in China. This report constructs a comprehensive economic analysis and comparison model for electric and fuel cell vehicles. Based on the learning rate curves of key components of new energy vehicles,the future manufacturing cost trends of electric and fuel cell passenger cars,buses and trucks were analyzed and compared. At the same time,combined with four application scenarios of private cars,taxis,buses and logistics vehicles in China,the use cost of electric and fuel cell vehicles in each scenario is analyzed. Finally,the total cost difference between the two technology routes at different time points in the future is compared. It is found that although the manufacturing cost of range extended fuel cell vehicles is low in the future,the use cost and price of electric vehicles have obvious advantages,and the total cost will be highly competitive.
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