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    1997~2017年甘肃省河西地区碳排放变化及脱钩分析

    摘要

    本报告系统、全面地分析了1997~2017年河西地区碳排放量和碳强度在县域、市域尺度上的时空变化和分布情况;利用Theil指数测算、分析了河西地区碳排放的市域差异及不同因素对此差异的贡献;运用脱钩理论的方法通过计算得出河西地区碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系与程度,并对其两者之间的关系进行进一步分析。研究发现,河西地区各区县碳排放量在空间上分布并不均衡,碳排放量较高的区县主要是玉门市、嘉峪关市、武威市凉州区、张掖市甘州区、金昌市金川区、酒泉市肃州区等;在市域尺度上,河西5市碳排放总量占甘肃省的比重保持在25%左右,酒泉市碳排放量明显高于其他4市,嘉峪关市人均碳排放量最高。河西地区碳强度总体上呈下降趋势,各市、区县间的差异逐年缩小,嘉峪关市碳强度始终高于其他4市。河西地区碳排放的总体Theil指数呈频繁波动的演变趋势,不同时期市域内Theil指数和市域间Theil指数对总体Theil指数的贡献率有所差异,各市对河西地区碳排放总体差异的影响有所不同。河西地区碳排放与经济增长脱钩弹性指数波动变化较大,大部分时间处于弱脱钩状态,即碳排放增长的速度低于经济增长的速度。最后,本报告提出了相应的对策建议,包括优化产业结构,大力发展绿色低碳产业;优化能源结构,控制煤炭消费总量,提升清洁能源比例;推进节能减排,强化工业、建筑和交通节能,积极开展用能权交易、碳交易等。

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    Abstract

    Hexi region,also called Hexi Corridor of Gansu province,including 5 cities (Jiuquan,Jiayuguan,Zhangye,Wuwei and Jinchang),is an important section in the development of the Belt and the Road and one of the most important new and clean energy bases in China,which plays a significant role in ensuring national energy security and promoting the achievement of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” goals of China. This report systematically and comprehensively analyzes the spatiotemporal variation of carbon emission and carbon intensity at the county and city level,respectively,calculates the difference of carbon emission among cities with the Theil index,and explores the decoupling relationship and degree between carbon emission and economic growth based on decoupling theory in Hexi region in 1997-2017. The results show that:(1)the spatial distribution of carbon emission was uneven in Hexi region,and Yumen,Jiayuguan,Liangzhou,Ganzhou,Suzhou,Jinchuan cities or districts had a relatively high level of carbon emission;(2)carbon emission in Hexi accounted for about 25% of that in Gansu,carbon emission in Jiuquan city was the highest among the 5 cities of Hexi,while carbon emission per capita in Jiayuguan city was the highest;(3)carbon intensity generally presented a decline trend and its difference among cities and counties in Hexi narrowed gradually,carbon intensity in Jiayuguan city was the greatest among the 5 cities of Hexi;(4)the Theil index of carbon emission in Hexi fluctuated frequently,the contribution of differences within cities and differences among cities on regional differences was various in different period;(5)the decoupling index between carbon emission and economic growth in Hexi showed large fluctuations,and was the “weakly decoupled” status in most years,namely,the rate of carbon emission growth was lower than that of economic growth. In addition,several countermeasures and suggestions are put forward,includes:(1)optimizing the industrial structure and vigorously promoting the development of green and low carbon industry;(2)optimizing the energy structure,controlling the total amount of coal consumption,decreasing the share of coal in the first energy consumption,and improving the percentage of new and clean energy;(3)promoting energy-saving and emission reduction,strengthening energy conservation in industry,construction and transportation fields,and actively implementing energy-consuming right trading and carbon emission trading policy.

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    作者简介
    冶伟峰:冶伟峰,兰州大学资源环境学院讲师,主要研究方向为能源环境经济与可持续发展。
    丁文广:丁文广,兰州大学资源环境学院教授、博士生导师,甘肃省人民政府参事,主要研究方向为环境社会学、国家公园管理。
    吕泳洁:吕泳洁,兰州大学资源环境学院硕士研究生。
    邓喆:邓喆,兰州大学资源环境学院硕士研究生。
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