为了解气候变化对祁连山国家级自然保护区珍稀野生动物潜在分布的影响,促进其有效保护,本报告以保护区内3目(偶蹄目、食肉目和鸡形目)12种珍稀物种为研究对象,基于相关性分析和Jackknife分析,筛选气候、地形和植被类型等关键环境因子,采用MaxEnt模型模拟了当前12个物种的潜在分布区域,通过ArcGIS软件确定了其优先保护区域并分析了目标优先保护区域。最终构建了祁连山珍稀野生动物的物种分布数据库以及栖息地环境因子空间数据库。结果表明:雪豹与岩羊的重叠适宜栖息地大部分在保护区核心区和缓冲区之外,即在祁丰的中东部(模拟出的两个适宜栖息地斑块之间的区域)、隆畅河保护站全区以及寺大隆的部分区域。本报告建议把这三个区域划分为祁连山保护区的核心区,并建议把康乐与西水这两个保护站的缓冲区向北扩增,这样有利于维持雪豹以及同域分布物种栖息地的完整性与连通性。
<<In order to understand the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of rare wildlife in Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve,this study used field transect method,infrared camera trap method and Drone patrol method to set up 9 monitoring sample areas in the Reserve to carry out biodiversity observation research with the flagship species snow leopard as the core. With 12 key protected species of Artiodactyla,Carnivore and Giformes as the research objects,the snow leopard population showed a stable growth pattern,and its distribution range was from Tianzhu County in the east to Aksai County in the west,and the main distribution range was Sunan and Subei. Based on Pearson correlation analysis and Jackknife analysis,MaxEnt model was used to construct the species distribution database and habitat environmental factors spatial database of rare wild animals in Qilian Mountains. The results showed that the habitat of wild animals in Qilian Mountain National Park was characterized by patchy characteristics,and the scientific problems such as connectivity,homogeneity and lack of conservation were prominent. Therefore,the construction of biodiversity conservation system with snow leopard and black-necked crane as the core should be strengthened.
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