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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    2021~2022年奉贤固定资产投资形势分析与研判

    摘要

    本报告以奉贤区固定资产投资为主要研究对象,从增速、结构和与上海郊区(县)的对比等方面着手分析,研究了该区2010~2020年固定资产投资的发展历程。研究发现,该时期奉贤区固定资产投资总额在过去一段时间里,特别是在“十三五”时期有了较大的增长,与此同时,产业结构也在持续优化。进一步,通过与上海郊区横向比较,以及对投资结构进行分析,本报告分析了2021年1~9月奉贤区固定资产投资现状,从多个方向揭示该区固定资产投资的形势。通过与临沪部分县(区)固定资产投资总额进行比较,本报告发现“十三五”时期奉贤区固定资产投资总额不仅在上海郊区中居领先地位,而且也快于部分临沪县级地区的增长。本报告认为,尽管宏观调控下本区域房地产开发投资有所下降,但是奉贤工业投资仍较为活跃,城市基建投资也保持稳定投入,预计全社会固定资产投资达到600亿元,增长13%以上,其中工业投资130亿元,增长或接近20%。从中长期来看,在多项利好政策叠加影响下,奉贤区的城市能级将持续提升,未来本区域仍将保持稳健的固定资产投资,从而更好地支持经济的高质量发展。

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    Abstract

    The chapter researches on the Fengxian’s fixed assets investment from different aspects. It is found that the total investment in fixed assets in Fengxian District has increased greatly,especially during the 13th Five Year Plan period,the industrial structure is also continuously optimized. At the same time,the industrial structure is also continuously optimized. Further,this report analyzes the fixed asset investment situation in Fengxian District from January to September 2021,and presents the current situation of fixed asset investment in Fengxian District from multiple angles by using the methods of structural analysis and horizontal comparison. At the same time,through the comparative study between Fengxian District and some counties(districts)near Shanghai,this report finds that the total fixed asset investment in Fengxian District during the 13th Five Year Plan period is not only the leading area in the suburbs of Shanghai,but also faster than the growth of some county-level areas near Shanghai. According to the report,although the investment in real estate in the region has decreased,the industrial investment in Fengxian is still relatively active,and the urban infrastructure has also maintained stable investment. It is expected that the investment in fixed assets will reach 60 billion yuan,an increase of more than 13%,including 13 billion yuan of industrial investment,an increase of more than 18%.In the medium and long term,under the influence of a number of favorable policies,the region will continue to maintain steady fixed asset investment to support high-quality economic development.

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    作者简介
    何雄就:何雄就,经济学博士,研究方向为宏观经济政策与产业经济。
    伏开宝:伏开宝,经济学博士,上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院博士后,研究方向为经济增长与产业经济。
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