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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2022年上海奉贤经济形势分析与预测

    摘要

    2021年是“十四五”开局之年,奉贤区紧抓国际国内双循环的重要机遇,积极应对全球疫情反复带来的影响,经济得到了持续复苏,经济基本面逐步夯实。具体来看,农业发展持续提质增效,正在全力推动乡村振兴;工业经济加速反弹,盈利水平回升明显;服务业占区域经济的比重持续上升,消费品市场加速复苏;净出口近七年首次反弹,跨境电商迅速发展;财政收入反弹,房地产销售市场趋于理性。结合国际国内经济形势及奉贤区经济发展趋势,预计2022年奉贤经济总量将持续复苏,经济增长速度有望超过全市平均水平。但受全球疫情反复的影响,全球供应链出现危机,经济运行中的不确定性因素此消彼长,给未来奉贤经济持续向好发展带来了诸多不确定性。建议奉贤抢抓城市数字化转型契机,打造数字时代文化创意之都;持续扩大东方美谷影响力,助力上海国际消费中心城市建设;扎实推进乡村振兴建设,打造生态文化品牌;持续优化营商环境,为奉贤经济的高质量发展营造良好的环境。

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    Abstract

    2021 is the first year of the 14th five year plan. Fengxian District has seized the important opportunity of international and domestic double circulation,actively responded to the repeated impact of the global epidemic,sustained economic recovery and gradually consolidated economic fundamentals. Specifically,agricultural development continues to improve quality and efficiency,and is making every effort to promote rural revitalization;The industrial economy rebounded rapidly and the profit level rebounded significantly;The proportion of service industry in the regional economy continued to rise,and the consumer goods market accelerated its recovery;Net exports rebounded for the first time in nearly seven years,and cross-border e-commerce developed rapidly;Fiscal revenue rebounded and real estate sales tended to be rational. Combined with the international and domestic economic situation and the economic development trend of Fengxian District,it is expected that the total economic volume of Fengxian District will continue to recover in 2022,which is expected to exceed the average level of the whole city. However,affected by the repeated global epidemic,there is a shortage crisis in the global supply chain,and the uncertain factors in the economic operation change one after another,which has brought many uncertainties to the sustainable and good economic development of Fengxian District in the future. It is suggested that Fengxian seize the opportunity of urban digital transformation to build a cultural and creative capital in the digital age;Continue to expand the influence of Oriental beauty Valley and help the construction of Shanghai international consumption center city;Solidly promote the construction of Rural Revitalization and build an ecological and cultural brand;Continue to optimize the business environment and create a good development environment for the high-quality development of Fengxian economy.

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    作者简介
    朱平芳:朱平芳,上海社会科学院研究生院院长,博士生导师,主要研究方向为计量经济学理论与方法、宏观经济预测分析与政策评价等。
    邸俊鹏:邸俊鹏,经济学博士,上海社会科学院经济研究所、数量经济研究中心副研究员,主要研究方向为计量经济学理论及其在政策评估中的应用。
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