工业污染排放大、结构性污染突出是珠江—西江经济带污染防治面临的严峻现实。本文以珠江—西江经济带规划范围内83个县域级行政区域为研究单元,在基于熵值法测度由二氧化硫、氮氧化物、化学需氧量和氨氮4项污染物构成的水气环境污染指数(WAPI)基础上,采用空间计量模型探究珠江—西江经济带环境污染的驱动因素及空间效应,为制定面向污染源管控的环境规制提供科学参考。研究发现:(1)2012~2016年珠江—西江经济带水气环境污染指数降低30。6%,WAPI整体改善较为明显。同时,5年间的水气环境污染空间格局整体稳定,在流域尺度呈现由上游向下游递增的趋势,县域尺度呈现围绕高污染县域的核心—边缘结构。(2)中下游地区是珠江—西江经济带水气环境污染防控的关键,其中,下游的珠江三角洲流域水气环境污染态势尤其严峻,亟须将环境承载能力及污染程度作为其开发保护的重要考量,加速珠江三角洲流域的发展方式向生态文明转变。(3)珠江—西江经济带本地水气环境污染程度明显受到周边县域的影响。其中,工业化水平为主要驱动因素,实施工业转型升级已刻不容缓。未来应注重加大产能和生产技术中对减排指标和环境效益的考量,并在工业结构、生产方面实施系统化、源头化综合治理以缓解水气环境污染态势。(4)本地水气环境污染程度明显受到周边县域的影响,应针对水气环境污染的空间溢出效应,建立区域协同的环境规制准则,通过协同环境准入、污染跨境预警等手段推动珠江—西江经济带内环境容量的价值一体化,从而推动区域经济可持续发展。
<<The severe reality of pollution prevention and control in the Pearl River-West River Economic Belt is that industrial pollution discharge is large and structural pollution is prominent. Based on 83 county level administrative units of the Pearl River-West River Economic Belt,chemical oxygen demand(COD),ammonia nitrogen,sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides were picked to indicate water and air pollution(WAPI). Based on the measure of WAPI,spatial error model was used to quantitatively decompose effect of the driving factors and the spatial effect. It provides scientific reference for the establishment of environmental regulation oriented to pollution source control. The results show that:(1)the water and air environmental pollution index in the Pearl River-West River Economic Belt decreased by 30.6% from 2012 to 2016,and the overall improvement of WAPI was obvious. At the same time,the spatial pattern of water and air pollution was stable,and increased from upstream to downstream at the watershed scale. At the county scale,there was a core-edge structure surrounding the high-pollution counties. (2)the middle and lower reaches of the Pearl River-West River Economic Belt was the key to prevent and control pollution. Among them,the downstream was particularly polluted,it is urgent to consider the environmental carrying capacity and pollution degree of development and protection,accelerate the Pearl River Delta basin to transform to ecological civilization. (3)the local pollution degree in the Pearl River-West River Economic Belt was obviously affected by the surrounding counties. The level of industrialization was the main driving factor,the implementation of industrial transformation and upgrading is urgent. In the future,more attention should be paid to the consideration of emission reduction targets and environmental benefits in capacity and production technology,and implement systematic and source comprehensive treatment in industrial structure and production to alleviate the situation of water and gas environmental pollution. (4)The degree of local pollution was obviously affected by the surrounding counties. In view of the spatial spillover effect of pollution,deep-level environmental regulations such as environmental access,pollution payment and cross-border early warning should be established in coordination,and the value of environmental capacity should be promoted across regions,and the sewage charging system based on concentration and total amount should be promoted. Achieve social and economic development while minimizing the degree of water and gas environmental pollution.
<<Keywords: | Driving FactorsSpatial EffectWater and Air PollutionSpatial Error ModelThe Pearl River-West River Economic Belt |