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    英国经济形势与展望(2020~2021)

    摘要

    从2020年第三季度以来,新冠肺炎疫情对英国经济的负面影响逐渐减小,英国经济呈现出较强的复苏势头,在一些指标上的表现甚至好于美国、德国、法国等其他发达经济体。消费和投资对拉动经济增长的动能强劲,投资稍显不足,服务业、建筑业和劳动力市场基本接近或正在接近疫情前水平,但原本具有较强竞争优势的金融业和汽车业出现了明显的衰退迹象。长期来看,未来英国经济的增长动力主要取决于经济复苏效率、核心产业竞争力以及对外关系的走向。脱欧的负面影响或将长期化,英国经济仍然存在较大不确定性。

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    Abstract

    Since the third quarter of 2020,the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the British economy has gradually diminished. The UK economy has gained a strong momentum of recovery,and its overall performance is even better than that of other developed economies,such as the United States,Germany,and France. Consumption and investment play an important role in boosting economic growth while the latter is slightly insufficient. The service industry,construction industry,and labor market are close to or approaching their pre-pandemic level,but the financial and automotive industries,which previously had strong competitive advantages,showed obvious signs of recession. In the long run,the future growth of the UK economy mainly depends on the efficiency of economic recovery,the competitiveness of core industries,and the development of foreign relations. The negative impact of Brexit may exist for long,and the British economy is still in considerable uncertainty.

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    作者简介
    杨成玉:杨成玉,经济学博士,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所副研究员,研究领域为欧洲经济、中欧经贸关系。
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