碳达峰、碳中和背景下,全社会能源供应方式、能源发展需求、能源结构特征都将发生革命性、根本性变化,前瞻性地开展中长期能源发展的研究展望,对于明晰方向、指导实践具有积极意义。本文详细阐述了河南省能源发展的现状基础,系统梳理了国内权威机构关于全国能源的发展研判,研究构建了“能源—电力—碳排放”一体化分析模型,分情景进行了河南省中长期能源电力发展的预测展望,总结了阶段的主要特征、提出了转型的对策建议,以期为政府管理和行业发展提供决策参考。
<<Under the background of “Carbon dioxide emission and Carbon neutrality”,the energy supply mode,energy demand development,and energy structure characteristics of the whole society will undergo revolutionary and fundamental changes. Proactively carrying out research and prospects for medium and long-term energy development are of positive significance for clarifying directions and guiding practice. And this article elaborates on the current status and foundation of energy development in Henan Province,systematically combs the domestic authoritative organizations’ research and judgment on national energy development,and researches and builds an integrated analysis model of “energy-electricity-carbon emissions”. It carried out the forecast and prospect of Henan Province’s medium and long-term energy and power development by scenario,summarized the main characteristics of the stage,and proposed countermeasures and suggestions for transformation,in order to provide decision-making reference for government management and industry development.
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